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Biking getting safer...?

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weasley
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PostPosted: 10:08 - 29 Jun 2012    Post subject: Biking getting safer...? Reply with quote

Looks like bikes are bucking the trend in terms of road deaths in 2011. We're either getting out less, getting more defensive or bouncing better.
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supZ
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PostPosted: 10:29 - 29 Jun 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

whilst its good the number has dropped from the previous year its still 19% of accidents made by 5% of the vehicles on the road. its still huge.

but, any drop is a good thing Smile

i would actually venture a guess its partly down to the poor weather this year. we havent had that proper summer that the '6 monthers' come out of hiding and throw themselves at the scenery.
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Tomzo47
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PostPosted: 11:55 - 29 Jun 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

surely they don't realise that now there is no point in anybody 17-19 paying for their tests, and therefore paying for no training or swatting up on road laws. CBT doesn't even come close to covering all of this, so realistically we're going to have a lot more 125 riders not knowing how to be fully safe. well done DSA! Fucked everything up again! I'm glad I've got my licence sorted.....

Edit: Wrong thread Embarassed
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Last edited by Tomzo47 on 14:09 - 29 Jun 2012; edited 1 time in total
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supZ
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PostPosted: 12:07 - 29 Jun 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hairy Tom wrote:
surely they don't realise that now there is no point in anybody 17-19 paying for their tests, and therefore paying for no training or swatting up on road laws. CBT doesn't even come close to covering all of this, so realistically we're going to have a lot more 125 riders not knowing how to be fully safe. well done DSA! Fucked everything up again! I'm glad I've got my licence sorted.....


you sure you didnt mean to post that in this thread? https://www.bikechatforums.com/viewtopic.php?p=3236674
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 14:15 - 29 Jun 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yup, it's hardly a huge leap of faith to go ahead and put that down to fewer fast rural miles thanks to rotten summers.

I'll chase it up later, but it'll be interesting to see how that compares to the "serious injury" figures. Kills are down even though sales of commuter 125s are up quite sharply.

It's only another hop and a skip of faith to pin it specifically on weekend heroes getting rained off, or Born Againers sodding off the sportsbikes and getting onto Ewan-and-Charliemobiles instead.

Well, good on us, we should enjoy being on the high horse for a change. Tut Tut all round to everyone else.
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doggone
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PostPosted: 14:32 - 29 Jun 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is a touristy area and the crap weather the last three months means all traffic including bikes has been way down on normal - especially the spur of the moment weekend runs.
Plus the economic slow-down is having an almost subconscious effect, so people decide to not burn fuel in borderline decisions.
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Alpha-9
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PostPosted: 14:48 - 29 Jun 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Any of these things are more likely to kill you than bikes anyway, live a little Laughing

https://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2011/10/28/Factfile_deaths_large.png

https://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8401344.stm is pretty cool
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Going
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PostPosted: 03:20 - 30 Jun 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

I like the look of Accidental Poisoning Smile
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daemonoid
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PostPosted: 16:23 - 30 Jun 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Alpha-9 wrote:
Any of these things are more likely to kill you than bikes anyway, live a little Laughing


When you look at a chart like that it certainly makes you wonder why they bother spending quite so much on road safety when a few quid spent elsewhere could make a much bigger difference.
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Clanger
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PostPosted: 16:31 - 30 Jun 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

No, I don't think it is.
Take one example. My work colleague followed me for half of the journey to work the other day which was a good 15mins (I was on my bike), at one point I turned around to look at him and waved...

We got to work, he followed me through the automated gate and parked up.

Later when we caught up, I asked if he worked out who it was, after I'd waved at him...he said "I didn't even see a motorbike on my journey to work this morning..." Now that's fooking worrying!!!!! Shocked
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kernow24
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PostPosted: 18:12 - 30 Jun 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Clanger wrote:
No, I don't think it is.
Take one example. My work colleague followed me for half of the journey to work the other day which was a good 15mins (I was on my bike), at one point I turned around to look at him and waved...

We got to work, he followed me through the automated gate and parked up.

Later when we caught up, I asked if he worked out who it was, after I'd waved at him...he said "I didn't even see a motorbike on my journey to work this morning..." Now that's fooking worrying!!!!! Shocked


If someone asked you if you rode past a ginger haired man
with a limp an a wonky eye, would you remember?
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FantasticMrFo...
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PostPosted: 20:03 - 30 Jun 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

kernow24 wrote:
Clanger wrote:
No, I don't think it is.
Take one example. My work colleague followed me for half of the journey to work the other day which was a good 15mins (I was on my bike), at one point I turned around to look at him and waved...

We got to work, he followed me through the automated gate and parked up.

Later when we caught up, I asked if he worked out who it was, after I'd waved at him...he said "I didn't even see a motorbike on my journey to work this morning..." Now that's fooking worrying!!!!! Shocked


If someone asked you if you rode past a ginger haired man
with a limp an a wonky eye, would you remember?


I know I wouldn't, but I'd certainly remember if someone asked "did you see that Audi A4 at *Insert place here*? I remember Types of vehicle rather than the occupant driving it, same should be said for cagers.
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Andrew122
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PostPosted: 22:00 - 14 Jul 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Alpha-9 wrote:
Any of these things are more likely to kill you than bikes anyway, live a little Laughing

Bloody fascinating...in a morbid kind of way.
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Derivative
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PostPosted: 00:23 - 15 Jul 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

daemonoid wrote:
Alpha-9 wrote:
Any of these things are more likely to kill you than bikes anyway, live a little Laughing


When you look at a chart like that it certainly makes you wonder why they bother spending quite so much on road safety when a few quid spent elsewhere could make a much bigger difference.


I have no stats to hand but it seems fairly likely that the vast majority of non-accidental deaths happen those past middle age.

From an economic point of view it makes sense to keep your most productive members of society alive, and screw the elderly.

Not to mention it's a fair bit easier to simply say "don't drive fast" than develop new cures for diseases.
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Sload
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PostPosted: 00:34 - 15 Jul 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Alpha-9 wrote:
Any of these things are more likely to kill you than bikes anyway, live a little Laughing
https://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8401344.stm is pretty cool


Maybe the best thing I have seen you post. With all the deaths from more pertinent problems, it does make you wonder why they are so vehement with regards road statistics.
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Redoko
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PostPosted: 00:41 - 15 Jul 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just 3%...

If in the next two years it accelerates then look into it.

Too many knee-jerk reactions.
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Derivative
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PostPosted: 00:45 - 15 Jul 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Redoko wrote:
Just 3%...

If in the next two years it accelerates then look into it.

Too many knee-jerk reactions.


Yeah, this comes to mind most of the time statistics are quoted in the media to be honest.

1900 is not too large a sample size. 3% is only 60 more people, that's probably about 30 crashes?
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c-m
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PostPosted: 14:19 - 17 Jul 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

1900 is enough.

Generally once you've got 50+ people in each of your breaks, the results are basically set. The additional sample just makes it look more robust.

Source: I work in market research producing reports for governing bodies
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daemonoid
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PostPosted: 17:08 - 17 Jul 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

c-m wrote:
1900 is enough.

Generally once you've got 50+ people in each of your breaks, the results are basically set. The additional sample just makes it look more robust.

Source: I work in market research producing reports for governing bodies


Explains the poor quality of the statistics then...

Can you tell me the significance of an extra 51 road deaths with a total of 1901? Make sure you take into account the total number of accidents and the number of interactions that could lead to accidents.

I'll give you a hint... It's around about f-all significance but I'd love to see your working out so I can tell you where you're going wrong.
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c-m
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PostPosted: 17:48 - 17 Jul 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

daemonoid wrote:
c-m wrote:
1900 is enough.

Generally once you've got 50+ people in each of your breaks, the results are basically set. The additional sample just makes it look more robust.

Source: I work in market research producing reports for governing bodies


Explains the poor quality of the statistics then...

Can you tell me the significance of an extra 51 road deaths with a total of 1901? Make sure you take into account the total number of accidents and the number of interactions that could lead to accidents.

I'll give you a hint... It's around about f-all significance but I'd love to see your working out so I can tell you where you're going wrong.


To be honest i have no idea what you are talking on about.

Probably nothing to do with me stating that a research a sample of just 50 (people per break) is usually enough to report on.

e.g

Say you ask a 150 bikers a question with a coded response.

You ask:

50 - riding less than 2 years
50 - 2 years to 10 years
50 - riding 10+ years

The question:- How were you introduced to motorcycling?

Select one answer only

A: Through a friend
A: Through a family member
A: Saw it on TV
A: Found a school on my own
A: Blah blah blah

The answers you'd get from each group wouldn't change much through increasing sample size. e.g say 40% of the group who have been riding for less than 2 years, were introduced through a friend (making that the popular answer for that group). Increasing that sample to 500, or even 5000, isn't likely to have a significant effect on the results.
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Derivative
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PostPosted: 18:55 - 17 Jul 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Perhaps 'sample size' is an incorrect term to use.

The sample is all UK citizens. ~60 million.
Or at least, all UK motorists.
The number of deaths is ~2000.

One or two accidents can throw off the stats significantly.
A serious two-vehicle collision could potentially add nearly half a percentage point (8 deaths).

Take, for example, the number of people born with a very rare genetic defect per year. One year, there could be six. The next, eleven. The number has almost doubled - that doesn't necessarily mean there's an underlying problem to look at, with reasonably small figures the derivative is affected easily because of the discrete nature of the data.


Last edited by Derivative on 18:56 - 17 Jul 2012; edited 1 time in total
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daemonoid
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PostPosted: 18:55 - 17 Jul 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

c-m wrote:
To be honest i have no idea what you are talking on about.

Probably nothing to do with me stating that a research a sample of just 50 (people per break) is usually enough to report on.


Ok, that's the problem...

The 1900 are not the sample (or 'break' as you call it). They are the answer...

The sample size for this is every road user in the UK, the response being died / not died. Assuming 1/2 of the population drive/ride you have very roughly a 1901/30,000,000 response of died.

Now, let's say you compare 2 samples of 50 and found that the response to one of your yes/no questions in the first sample was 1 yes vs 49 no. In the second sample it was 2 yes vs 48 no. Would you think that was odd? No, the statistical significance of the difference is very low.

When we compare two yearly samples or 'breaks' 1901/30,000,000 to 1850/30,000,000 there again is very little significance to this result, just as in the above example.

I'd recommend you take a look at statistical significance as well as regression to the mean, both will help you evaluate stats a lot better. Also, volatility would be interesting to you...

The fact that you (ONS?) use samples of 50 is quite scary, the responses could be massively influenced by the quality of the sample, at least you do multiple samples to help mitigate that...

I used to write 'monte carlo' sims for slot machines, volatility is very high on slot machines so we would have to run with very large samples. I tended to run 10 random samples of 0.5% of total population before I even handed it off to the testing department who did much more thorough simulations.
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daemonoid
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PostPosted: 18:58 - 17 Jul 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Derivative wrote:
Perhaps 'sample size' is an incorrect term to use.

The sample is all UK citizens. ~60 million.
Or at least, all UK motorists.
The number of deaths is ~2000.

One or two accidents can throw off the stats significantly.
A serious two-vehicle collision could potentially add nearly half a percentage point (8 deaths).

Take, for example, the number of people born with a very rare genetic defect per year. One year, there could be six. The next, eleven. The number has almost doubled - that doesn't necessarily mean there's an underlying problem to look at, with reasonably small figures the derivative is affected easily because of the discrete nature of the data.


Damn you! My reply took so long and you beat me to it by mere seconds. You've even done a better job of getting to the point and not waffling for ages!

I hate you!
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Derivative
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PostPosted: 19:01 - 17 Jul 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

The relatively short time periods used also play a part.
You'd expect to see a huge variation in the number of weekly road deaths, for example. A year is not that long - especially when there have been no real significant changes in that time period.

Quote:
Damn you! My reply took so long and you beat me to it by mere seconds. You've even done a better job of getting to the point and not waffling for ages!

I hate you!


Embarassed
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 21:35 - 17 Jul 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

There are somewhere north of 37,000,000 licensed drivers in the UK.

So that's a 2.76% rise in deaths (OH NOES!), and less than 0.00014% increase in your chances of dying (OH... k).
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