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daemonoid
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 Posted: 14:21 - 11 Feb 2015  Post subject: Driverless cars another step closer... |
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This time, legislation. Those pesky bureaucratic arguments are bei addressed and the UK will have a chance to lead the way in this new tech.
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-31364441
Looking forward to my robot chauffeur. I'll consider this a success the day I can get drunk and have it drive me home.
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daemonoid
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Posted: 10:12 - 12 Feb 2015  Post subject: Re: Driverless cars another step closer... |
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| Rogerborg wrote: | | daemonoid wrote: | I can imagine computers doing a much better job than we do, certainly... |
<yous-trolling.jpg>
I can imagine that any computer capable of dealing with real rush hour UK roads and traffic would shortly afterwards ponder "I think, therefore I am" before going into crush-kill-destroy mode to remove the carbon-based units infesting the highways. |
<face palm.jpg>
The "AI" to handle the road is relatively easy. I use the term "AI" very loosely as it's more of a state machine based decision engine. Essentially, a grand and convoluted "if in this situation, do this". A great example of this kind of thing being games* - all of those behaviours that you think are "AI" are normally a simple state machine.
The difficult part is creating an electronic representation of the world for that "AI" to travel around in. Games have the benefit of a world that is easy to identify things - the difference between a person and a tree is obvious because one object is of class tree and the other is of class person and they identify themselves as such when interrogated. Using sensors it is much harder to tell the difference, and this is where the difficulty lays.
I find it frustrating discussing these kind of things, because I really can't articulate the fact that all of the driving related stuff that most people consider difficult (pulling out from junctions, dealing with a driver heading the wrong way, etc. etc) is actually relatively easy. creating an accurate model of the world is the bit that impresses me.
https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/tasks.png
*yes, game AI is not foolproof - but the development cycles are typically 9-24months with an end goal of fun rather than safety.
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Rogerborg
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Posted: 10:47 - 12 Feb 2015  Post subject: Re: Driverless cars another step closer... |
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| daemonoid wrote: | [irrelevant stuff] The difficult part is creating an electronic representation of the world for that "AI" to travel around in. |
Yes, that.
You're sat at a T junction in congested traffic, wanting to turn right.
The car in the near lane has left a gap barely wide enough for you to get through and is flashing his lights. Cyclists are riding up the inside. There's a road sweeper approaching in the far lane, with the driver becoming you to proceed, while a motorcycle squeezes past him close enough to rub mirrors.
How represent? What do?
Now add in potholes, random lane closures, a chap in a hi-vis with a STOP/GO sign, suicidal pedestrians ignoring all of that... you know, all the things that we actually encounter on a daily basis.
Autopilot on motorways, perhaps.
But driverless cars on UK urban and suburban roads are a fantasy.
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daemonoid
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| Posted: 11:22 - 12 Feb 2015 Post subject: Re: Driverless cars another step closer... |
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| Rogerborg wrote: | Yes, that.
You're sat at a T junction in congested traffic, wanting to turn right.
The car in the near lane has left a gap barely wide enough for you to get through and is flashing his lights. Cyclists are riding up the inside. There's a road sweeper approaching in the far lane, with the driver becoming you to proceed, while a motorcycle squeezes past him close enough to rub mirrors.
How represent? What do?
Now add in potholes, random lane closures, a chap in a hi-vis with a STOP/GO sign, suicidal pedestrians ignoring all of that... you know, all the things that we actually encounter on a daily basis.
Autopilot on motorways, perhaps.
But driverless cars on UK urban and suburban roads are a fantasy. |
You started out sounding like you understood but then went off on a tangent. You've just described a situation that a computer can handle better - the more input, the better these things do in comparison to us single taskers.
You seem to think humans are perfect at these things?
As a small point, why have potholes become the new goto argument against self driving cars? The simple answer there is that self driving cars don't need to have the same 'driving dynamics' as a human driven cars. This means softer suspension, higher profile tyres, larger wheels and generally being set up for comfort. Why weave around when you can roll over gently?
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daemonoid
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weasley
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Rogerborg
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| Posted: 12:52 - 12 Feb 2015 Post subject: Re: Driverless cars another step closer... |
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| daemonoid wrote: | | Rogerborg wrote: | It can handle recognising flashed lights as a signal to proceed when the Highway Code explicitly says not to treat them as that? |
Why not? |
Because the Highway Code says not to.
What would be the legal issues involved in choosing to ignore that?
| daemonoid wrote: | | Rogerborg wrote: | It can see a waved hand or inclined head through a windscreen? |
An Xbox with a camera can do that... To think a multi sensor vehicle scanning in many different wavelengths could not is ridiculous. |
The current driverless cars that I'm aware of use lasers to surface scan. They can't "see" though glass. If they could, then - and I believe this was your point - the issue is interpretation. Is that driver waving at me, or at their passenger, or a fly, or just taking a selfie?
| daemonoid wrote: | | Rogerborg wrote: | It can distinguish a two wheeled vehicle scraping past a much larger multi-ton vehicle as a separate entity and predict what it's likely to do the instant that it gets past, whether that's turn off to the left, or accelerate on one wheel? |
Again, yes an Xbox would not have too much trouble with the spotting. |
Even if autocars aren't racists, what are the consequences for each application getting it wrong?
Which leads to...
| daemonoid wrote: | The computer would then react cautiously rather than the human who would try to teach the rider a lesson for daring to push in... |
...the point that an autonomous vehicle is going to shit the bed when it gets into any kind of sticky situation and just sit there, weeping into its diodes, holding everyone up while they beep and flash and wonder what the idiot driving it is thinking.
Palms will be greased, bungs will be bunged, contracts will be contracted, we'll do a trial, lessons will be learned. That'll be the last we hear of it beyond a few electric JohnnyCabs driving in carefully controlled squares while a man with a flag hi vis and clipboard shrieks at people to get out of the way.
| daemonoid wrote: | You are picking on easy stuff. |
I understand that you Belgians think that shoes constructed of leather rather than wood must be made by magical elves, so I guess it's easy to put too much faith in what technology can achieve.
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Biking is 1/20th as dangerous as horse riding.
GONE: HN125-8, LF-250B, GPz 305, GPZ 500S, Burgman 400 // RIDING: F650GS (800 twin), Royal Enfield Bullet Electra 500 AVL, Ninja 250R because racebike |
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daemonoid
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| Posted: 14:08 - 12 Feb 2015 Post subject: Re: Driverless cars another step closer... |
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| Rogerborg wrote: | Even if autocars aren't racists, what are the consequences for each application getting it wrong? |
You know damn well that I was comparing cheap, off the shelf tech as a baseline. Not saying it was infallible. The Google cars use Lidar, GPS, radar, enhanced versions of standard fit sensors (wheel rotation etc) and cameras in multiple wavelengths.
| Rogerborg wrote: | Which leads to...
...point that an autonomous vehicle is going to shit the bed when it gets into any kind of sticky situation and just sit there, weeping into its diodes, holding everyone up while they beep and flash and wonder what the idiot driving it is thinking. |
Point being that they will have slightly different strengths and weaknesses. Humans pull up to a junction and have to look both ways, judge the speed of the cars, then if there's no gap keep checking. Robot cars have the benefit of looking in all directions all the time, their speed estimation should be more accurate and quicker, and they'll be more consistent with their actions... No more jump and stall, no more wheel spin to correct.
All your comparisons are against this theoretical uber human, but in reality humans make so many silly mistakes.
They may start out slightly less bold than some humans but they have the capacity to be much, much better and more consistent.
| Rogerborg wrote: | | daemonoid wrote: | You are picking on easy stuff. |
I understand that you Belgians think that shoes constructed of leather rather than wood must be made by magical elves, so I guess it's easy to put too much faith in what technology can achieve. |
Considering the height of technology is some blue paint and your wife's gingham skirt I can understand how you can find technology rather difficult to comprehend*.
The flag waving is particularly poignant... It was a rather pointless exercise forced by Luddites of the day. Fortunately, your views are largely being ignored this time around and progress will continue largely uninterrupted.
*I was trying to think of somewhere near to you that would be as offensive as calling me a Belgian, but I realised you're already the metaphorical Belgian...
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| Lord Percy |
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Lord Percy
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| Posted: 14:27 - 12 Feb 2015 Post subject: |
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Personally I imagine it would be possible to have a road network mapped out for autonomous cars to use.
There'd have to be some MEGA failsafe navigation tech used though. GPS is often way off, and doesn't work in bad weather. It would need land-based triangulation points, surely.
Also there'd need to be a very well updated list of all the roadworks etc going on. So then the auto-car would know, for example, when it's allowed to take a diversion that goes onto the opposite side of the road. And things like that would need to be very strictly monitored too.
But regarding random problems e.g. sudden road obstructions of any kind, I think in theory an auto-car would be pretty good. I bet a lot of them would stop for the wrong reason though.
Regarding Roger's point about 'other' things, e.g. road user behind is making a hand gesture and beeping their horn etc. Maybe the passenger would be made aware, because humans do notice these things, and could just take control and sort it out themselves?
Auto-car tech might be possible but it's surely a long, long way off yet. Mainly because of how accurate the mapping would need to be, for so many roads. |
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daemonoid
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| Posted: 15:48 - 12 Feb 2015 Post subject: |
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| Lord Percy wrote: | Personally I imagine it would be possible to have a road network mapped out for autonomous cars to use.
There'd have to be some MEGA failsafe navigation tech used though. GPS is often way off, and doesn't work in bad weather. It would need land-based triangulation points, surely.
Also there'd need to be a very well updated list of all the roadworks etc going on. So then the auto-car would know, for example, when it's allowed to take a diversion that goes onto the opposite side of the road. And things like that would need to be very strictly monitored too.
But regarding random problems e.g. sudden road obstructions of any kind, I think in theory an auto-car would be pretty good. I bet a lot of them would stop for the wrong reason though.
Regarding Roger's point about 'other' things, e.g. road user behind is making a hand gesture and beeping their horn etc. Maybe the passenger would be made aware, because humans do notice these things, and could just take control and sort it out themselves?
Auto-car tech might be possible but it's surely a long, long way off yet. Mainly because of how accurate the mapping would need to be, for so many roads. |
These kind've articles may help in understanding what's already possible...
https://www.gizmag.com/google-self-driving-car-video-cyclists/31821/ (cyclist recognition)
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/may/28/google-self-driving-car-how-does-it-work
https://blog.europcar.co.uk/2014/05/28/google-car-lands-new-patent-to-automatically-avoid-roadworks/
(Roadwork navigation)
The thing to realise is that they're a long way down the development cycle, these trivial questions of "what if x happens" have been considered and are fixed, being worked on or at worst on the roadmap. I exaggerated a little with Tesla - Elon Musk thinks the full automated software will be ready for prime time in 5 years but legislation will take a few more years... He's suggested 2023 for tesla's vehicles to hit the road. I expect Google will be there first.
I also expect the London congestion charge zone to be open only to residents or driverless cars by 2030 and that by the time I retire only a privileged few will be able to afford the insurance to actually drive themselves.
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Rogerborg
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| Posted: 17:05 - 12 Feb 2015 Post subject: Re: Driverless cars another step closer... |
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| daemonoid wrote: | You know damn well that I was comparing cheap, off the shelf tech as a baseline. |
As opposed to what will actually get used in production robocars? 
Jesus wept, can you imagine the MOT on one? 
| daemonoid wrote: | All your comparisons are against this theoretical uber human, but in reality humans make so many silly mistakes. |
Good job the robocars will be programmed by ... wait, hang on... what was your point again?
I'm sure that in 99% of situations, a robocar will be better than most Facebooking drivers. It's that 1% where they'll totally spazz out and that I'm looking forward to.
https://a1-images.myspacecdn.com/images04/10/4b52d92c5f2445c185f7f7a6a250d4e0/full.gif
| daemonoid wrote: | Fortunately, your views are largely being ignored this time around and progress will continue largely uninterrupted. |
Over a trail of mangled kittens' bodies. 
____________________
Biking is 1/20th as dangerous as horse riding.
GONE: HN125-8, LF-250B, GPz 305, GPZ 500S, Burgman 400 // RIDING: F650GS (800 twin), Royal Enfield Bullet Electra 500 AVL, Ninja 250R because racebike |
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Old Thread Alert!
The last post was made 11 years, 226 days ago. Instead of replying here, would creating a new thread be more useful? |
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