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Do We Need A Nuclear Deterrent?

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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 11:08 - 24 Apr 2015    Post subject: Do We Need A Nuclear Deterrent? Reply with quote

Heard some ex-General on the news the other day spouting about "Russia is a threat, an Islamic state is a threat", Pakistan, which I've often thought could wind up as a nuclear-endowed Islamic state in the hands of extremists, Iran who seem a little unpredictable etc, and we involved for better or worse in much of it (mostly due to our 'tug-the-forelock to US hawks' mentality - even if we changed this last, is it too late to be disassociated with them in the eyes of others?).

Is now a good time to ditch Trident and not have a nuclear capability?
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Lord Percy
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PostPosted: 11:18 - 24 Apr 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think it's too late at all.

In fact if the UK was the first to do it, it might be easier? Because then there'd be other nations who would still be willing to back us up if we were attacked. NATO allies and all that.

So we'd be protected by others, while at the same probably displaying quite a serious global message about nuclear disarmament.

I wonder if there'd still always be a secret stash somewhere though.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 11:31 - 24 Apr 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Percy wrote:
I don't think it's too late at all.

In fact if the UK was the first to do it, it might be easier? Because then there'd be other nations who would still be willing to back us up if we were attacked. NATO allies and all that.

So we'd be protected by others, while at the same probably displaying quite a serious global message about nuclear disarmament.

I wonder if there'd still always be a secret stash somewhere though.


This raises a couple of questions in my mind.
1. Wasn't the only real reason that NATO was a deterrent to the USSR because it was backed up by US military power? Or would Europe's own nukes have been enough? (Thinking which mostly belonged to the Yanks anyway?)

2. If we dumped nukes, would other members of NATO still have the same willingness to back us if we were threatened?

3. Setting the example I don't think is a good way to go when there is a threat (I'm undecided if there really is). Some nations just do what they like and threats can arise in the most unlikely places at any time. I'm also still not entirely convinced that now people have the ability to build nukes that they can ever really be erased from the planet. The knowledge is there. It can't be undiscovered. Question
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dydey90
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PostPosted: 11:36 - 24 Apr 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Percy wrote:
I wonder if there'd still always be a secret stash somewhere though.


That's broadly what trident is, mobile nuclear silos. If we did go to war with Russia or a country with nuclear capacity then the first thing they'd want to do is attack our own nukes, which they can't do if they're tucked away in a submarine.

The chances of us actually needing nuclear weapons in anger however, are very slim. There have only been two bombs dropped and I don't think any intercontinental missiles launched outside of testing in the 70 years since the technology was developed.

Japan, for obvious reasons, has always been heavily against nukes and nobody has declared war on them on the grounds of "because we can" yet.

In any case, it's there as a last resort so we should be able to avoid the need through diplomacy or a less severe armed response. There's a lot of apocalyptic fiction based on the idea of a 60 minute war. Nobody wins, it's game over once the world starts playing nuclear tennis.
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The Artist
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PostPosted: 11:51 - 24 Apr 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

Get rid of the deterrent, keep some Nukes hidden away somewhere so when the shit does hit the fan, we can pull them out the bag at the last minute.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 12:04 - 24 Apr 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Artist wrote:
Get rid of the deterrent, keep some Nukes hidden away somewhere so when the shit does hit the fan, we can pull them out the bag at the last minute.


But isn't 'deterrent' the only real reason to have nukes in the first place? If the shit hits the fan, it's too late, and you only have the option of actually using them?
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 12:17 - 24 Apr 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is no point to nukes except as a deterrent to others. But it's a vicious circle, and now they exist, can you really ever be without them? If we had been a different nation, quietly minding our own business, staying out of controversial world affairs, maybe we would never have needed them. But you'd have to obliterate a lot of history now to get us to that point. We are in it 'til the endgame?
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swampy
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PostPosted: 12:21 - 24 Apr 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've made no secret of the fact I think Trident is an extortionately expensive exercise in national willy waving.

I don't think it is a deterrent - any nuclear war would be global, and any attack would result in the aggressors country being so heavily destroyed that it is illogical to launch the attack to start with - the old 'MAD' scenario.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 12:30 - 24 Apr 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

swampy wrote:
I've made no secret of the fact I think Trident is an extortionately expensive exercise in national willy waving.

I don't think it is a deterrent - any nuclear war would be global, and any attack would result in the aggressors country being so heavily destroyed that it is illogical to launch the attack to start with - the old 'MAD' scenario.


Is Putin likely to ever annexe the Baltic states, the East European states again? No? Why not?

Why would a nuclear war necessarily have to be global? Doesn't it depend on who goes to war with whom, and why?
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 12:34 - 24 Apr 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

They're not "our" nukes anyway, we rent them from Barry Osama. I very much doubt that we'd ever actually use them even in response to a first strike. Don't have the right paperwork, Caruthers can only find a green pen.


Russia could cripple us by just turning off the gas next winter.

Excitables could just sail a freighter up the Thames then say "Not us, religion of peace".

China have no interest in starting something half way round the world. We're literally insignificant to them. If they wanted to bring us to heel, they could just pause shipments of white goods until we caved in, or just dump Sterling.

Argentina is fixing to have another bite at the Malvinas - they don't seem very deterred by our oh-so-scary nukes.

They're an imperial relic that serve no purpose. Spend the money on bayonets and boot polish.
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Last edited by Rogerborg on 12:44 - 24 Apr 2015; edited 1 time in total
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RichardCraniu...
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PostPosted: 12:42 - 24 Apr 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's not just a deterrent to a nuclear attack, it's the biggest guarantee of sovereignty the UK has. Nukes are one of the reasons Israel still exists today

With regards to Japan, nobody has invaded because America. That and they have a "turn key" nuclear capability, meaning they could have nukes when ever they want.

I think the deterrent should stay personally. Maybe a shared one with France could be a less costly solution but that would probably be too difficult to sort out.

If the UK wish to remains a nuclear power then a continuous at sea deterrent is the only option. Silos are too easy to take out in a first strike
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Tungtvann
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PostPosted: 12:45 - 24 Apr 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

Get rid of them. The UK would never use them first and even if we got nuked, there's no point in sending a few back their way, I think that's policy as well.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 12:58 - 24 Apr 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:
They're not "our" nukes anyway, we rent them from Barry Osama. I very much doubt that we'd ever actually use them even in response to a first strike. Don't have the right paperwork, Caruthers can only find a green pen.


But RumsBush MkII could find the red pen for us. Obama won't be there forever.


Quote:
Russia could cripple us by just turning off the gas next winter.


Could they really? Are we really that dependant on them? Fracking (not necessarily here in Britain) etc?

Quote:
Excitables could just sail a freighter up the Thames then say "Not us, religion of peace".


This is the really tricky one isn't it? How do you hit back at an ephemeral group with no nation basis? Maybe let IS have it's Islamic State? Not really the right scenario for deterrent or use. But Iran? Pakistan? Given certain not entirely unfeasible developments?

Quote:
China have no interest in starting something half way round the world. We're literally insignificant to them. If they wanted to start something, they could just pause shipments of white goods until we caved in.


I wouldn't see China as a threat in current circumstances. But who knows how things could go in the future?

Quote:
Argentina is fixing to have another bite at the Malvinas - they don't seem very deterred.


I don't see this as a threat requiring a nuclear response or deterrent anyway. This is one which I suspect we would get backing from other nations if they were the aggressor. The world wants a diplomatic solution to this, however long it takes?

Quote:
They're an imperial relic that serve no purpose. Spend the money on bayonets and boot polish.


Which is maybe what Putin is already doing. Or is some being spent on a modern nuclear arsenal?

Tungtvann wrote:
Get rid of them. The UK would never use them first and even if we got nuked, there's no point in sending a few back their way, I think that's policy as well.


Of course we wouldn't use them first. But that's not the point is it? The point is supposed to be, while we have them, no one will use them against us first?
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J4mes
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PostPosted: 13:05 - 24 Apr 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

Is dumping our nukes and expecting the other powers to back us a bit like asking your mates to back you in a bar fight but instead of throwing punches you're going to flick ears?

Are we likely to get in to any bar fights?
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 13:14 - 24 Apr 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

J4mes wrote:

Are we likely to get in to any bar fights?


We do seem to have a penchant for it, don't we?

Everybody with any sense knows that we are no longer Great Britain, the Imperial state with a powerful, far-reaching influence and say over what others do. But we have a legacy. It may be unwanted, but we are on the radar of others around the world. Staying militarily connected to the Yanks has ensured this. Will anything we do now really affect the way others see us?

Putin and Russia. Where is all this headed I wonder? That general I spoke of in my OP said if Russia annexed any European states we would have to go to war with them. Is he right? What is there to stop Putin?
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RichardCraniu...
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PostPosted: 13:30 - 24 Apr 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Is he right? What is there to stop Putin?


America
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 14:16 - 24 Apr 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

RichardCranium wrote:
Quote:
Is he right? What is there to stop Putin?


America


And it's nukes?

Tiresome having to rely on our colonial cousins isn't it? Will it always have to be this way?
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swampy
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PostPosted: 14:18 - 24 Apr 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tungtvann wrote:
Get rid of them. The UK would never use them first and even if we got nuked, there's no point in sending a few back their way, I think that's policy as well.


Exactly this - put much better than I tried to do.

The deterrent argument is illogical. Putin wouldn't give a toss if we had them or not, because the minute he launches his, the US would launch theirs, China would launch theirs and welcome to the nuclear winter.. 40 odd warheads from the UK wouldn't make an ounce of difference in that situation.

If they only cost a few quid, I'd say keep them, my argument is not some hippy dippy 'nukes is bad' rhetoric. My problem is they do not present value for money, they keep us no safer than not having them and they cost 30 odd billion pounds....
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 14:36 - 24 Apr 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

RichardCranium wrote:
It's not just a deterrent to a nuclear attack, it's the biggest guarantee of sovereignty the UK has.

Against what threat?

Obviously, history is written by the winners, but they'll be writing it with their seven webbed fingers on a cave wall.


RichardCranium wrote:
Nukes are one of the reasons Israel still exists today

British nukes? That's what we're discussing, not some sandy armpit surrounded by displaced Peacelamists.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 14:41 - 24 Apr 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

So why aren't our political masters ditching them? Even the worst of the Tory Lords must see that we are not and cannot be the Imperial power of our past? Would there be repercussions with our allies? Would it weaken our say in NATO? What am I missing?

Why can't we just say to the Yanks, ok, you want to be the world's policeman, go ahead, but you can't expect lil' ol' Britain to come along with you all the time? Are they the only reason we keep em? Cos it makes the Yanks happy?

Oh, wait a minute...

What Rogerborg said about Putin cutting off our gas supplies...do we now need the Yanks for oil and gas? Maybe we could cosy up to Putin instead?

Bloody hell, this is all very complex. Think I'll go weed me garden Laughing
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oldpink
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PostPosted: 15:20 - 24 Apr 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

as Roger said there not our "Nukes"
we can't launch them unless America says so
all we do is store them (40 miles from my home) and ferry them about in very expensive submarines for the yanks

I've been a member of CND since 1970 when I was 14, my mind hasn't changed since them
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Old Git Racing
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PostPosted: 16:07 - 24 Apr 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dump them, next time a nuke is used it wont matter if you have them or not. Nukes aren't a 'limited' weapon, neither are the politics surrounding them.
Spend some of the money on an effective armed services and back our people who we seem to send regularly on shitty jobs without the right kit.
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J4mes
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PostPosted: 16:19 - 24 Apr 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

Can someone provide a genuine source that tells us we neither own nuclear weapons nor are we able to launch anything without US consent?

Wikipedia and media sources do not count.

I think it's incredibly naive to think this information is in the public domain. Even if the government make statements concerning the topic.
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J4mes
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PostPosted: 16:34 - 24 Apr 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:
J4mes wrote:

Are we likely to get in to any bar fights?


We do seem to have a penchant for it, don't we?


Erm, not really. Our last few little skirmishes are more like playing slapsies at the bus stop. We pick fights with nations who are too far and too weak to pose a serious threat to our own soil.

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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 16:55 - 24 Apr 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

J4mes wrote:
Erm, not really. Our last few little skirmishes are more like playing slapsies at the bus stop. We pick fights with nations who are too far and too weak to pose a serious threat to our own soil.

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But the effects ripple outwards and escalate don't they. And create enemies. And unite enemies. By bar fights, I thought you meant these 'smaller' conflicts. I wouldn't see a nuclear confrontation as a bar fight exactly.
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