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What should the future of Trident be?
Renew Trident-Who knows what threats will be around in decades to come
67%
 67%  [ 55 ]
Retire Trident-Conventional defences are deterrent enough
32%
 32%  [ 26 ]
Total Votes : 81

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The Wobbly Orange
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PostPosted: 12:31 - 01 Oct 2015    Post subject: Trident Poll Reply with quote

Trident is at the forefront of the news right now. The Conservatives in favour, the SNP against (almost as a single issue these days) and Labour divided. It has also come up many times recently in discussion on other topics in this very forum. So what do you guys think?

Personally I favour retaining Trident until multilateral disarmament can be achieved. To get rid alone would be an incalculable risk.
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Skudd
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PostPosted: 12:42 - 01 Oct 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

It would be nice to know that we are all killed by conventional weapons instead of those nasty nuclear ones. Rolling Eyes
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The Artist
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PostPosted: 12:50 - 01 Oct 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

Renew/keep/invent at least some form of nuclear weapon. I can't see how getting rid of them would benefit the country in any significant way.
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 13:05 - 01 Oct 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think it's a luxury we can ill afford.

It'll never be used, everyone knows it'll never be used.

All the MAD scenarios are lose-lose on all sides and everyone knows it.

A "first strike" scenario by a foriegn power would only be carried out by a dyed in the wool nutter. They would do it regardless of their targets ability to retaliate.

Strategic nuclear weapons do nothing for your international bargaining power. Too big a stick. It would be like threatening to settle a dispute over a game of darts by bulldozing the pub with everyone inside it.

A large part of the SNPs argument is that the UKs strategic nuclear arsenal shouldn't be located within 15 miles of Scotlands largest conurbation housing 1.2 million people. I think that's a valid point.

People always harp on about the employment they generate. I can't seem to get across to people how null this argument is. The system is funded from tax revenue and as such is entirely on the red side of the ledger. If they want to create employment, scrapping trident and spending the same amount on just about anything else instead would create more employment than maintaining a nuclear deterrant.

So yes, scrap it. Or downsize it to a tactical nuclear arsenal. We have other, massively flexible delivery systems able to deliver pinpoint nuclear strike anywhere in the world. We don't need a submarine carrying enough ICBMs to rain a spread of high yeild warheads down on a country.

All that nutter who's considering pushing the button needs to know is there'll an unmanned drone/cruise missile inbound to his location at 10 feet above ground level that's going to knock on the door then increase their local air temperature by six orders of magnitude.

Didn't vote as there is no option for downsizing our nuclear arsenal to a tactical rather than strategic one.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 14:12 - 01 Oct 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

^^^ That, and as per other threads.

We'd only use nuclear weapons in retaliation against nuclear strikes, because we're the Goodies, right?

In the situation where we're hit with one or even a few nukes, half a dozen land or surface ship based systems would be sufficient for measured eye-for-an-eye vengeance.

If we used them, which I'd seriously doubt, particularly as the threat is a bomb sailing up the Thames without anything as useful as a raving public declaration of war from North AfghanIslam.

In the situation where we're hit with dozens of nukes, enough to take out all land/ship systems, then first, what happens next won't matter to any of us, and second, in that scenario things will have kicked off globally to the extent that the Septics would be in and swinging, and nothing will matter to anyone.

Trident is overkill for a survivable nuclear war, irrelevant in an unsurvivable one. I can't see any realistic scenario in between "one nuke" and "all the nukes".
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 14:25 - 01 Oct 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm for it.....

MAD still holds true and even 1 submarine's worth could reduce Russia to a radioactive dump so whatever else Putin does, he has to be aware of that.

Who knows what countries are going to get their own nukes soon. Pakistan is a nuclear power as is Israel. Both as unstable as fuck. Throw Iran in the mix. Thumbs Down

Oh and the SNP hate it so close the base in Scotland and move it to Portsmouth or Plymouth. Sod giving the jobs to the people who don't want them.
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 14:29 - 01 Oct 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:
I can't see any realistic scenario in between "one nuke" and "all the nukes".


There was one. Both sides came up with something similar. Seems totally insane when you look at it now. Maybe it did when they came up with it too?

Use strategic nukes to create an interdiction line of "hot zones" from The Baltic to the Black Sea. Thereby preventing the goddamn commies rolling their tanks into Western Europe.

OR

Use strategic nukes to create an interdiction line through the Rhine valley, preventing the capitalist pigs reinforcing Germany.
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smegballs
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PostPosted: 14:30 - 01 Oct 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:

All that nutter who's considering pushing the button needs to know is there'll an unmanned drone/cruise missile inbound to his location at 10 feet above ground level that's going to knock on the door then increase their local air temperature by six orders of magnitude.



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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 14:39 - 01 Oct 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:

Who knows what countries are going to get their own nukes soon. Pakistan is a nuclear power as is Israel. Both as unstable as fuck. Throw Iran in the mix. Thumbs Down

So how, exactly, would us having the ability to launch a ballistic nuclear missile carrying eight, 100kilotonne yeild nuclear warheads (equivalent of 8 Hiroshima bombs per warhead) make that less likely?

Even if one of them did sucessfully make one, then took it to the Uk and detonated it. Do you think hitting their country back with even ONE of those would be a rational and proportionate response?

Us having a large strategic nuclear arsenal in no way makes a radical state less likely to use their single nuke. I'd suggest quite the opposite to be the case.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 14:45 - 01 Oct 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:
Polarbear wrote:

Who knows what countries are going to get their own nukes soon. Pakistan is a nuclear power as is Israel. Both as unstable as fuck. Throw Iran in the mix. Thumbs Down

So how, exactly, would us having the ability to launch a ballistic nuclear missile carrying eight, 100kilotonne yeild nuclear warheads (equivalent of 8 Hiroshima bombs per warhead) make that less likely?

Even if one of them did sucessfully make one, then took it to the Uk and detonated it. Do you think hitting their country back with even ONE of those would be a rational and proportionate response?

Us having a large strategic nuclear arsenal in no way makes a radical state less likely to use their single nuke. I'd suggest quite the opposite to be the case.


No, eradicating their country with a few would though. They wouldn't ever do it again.
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Ste
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PostPosted: 14:47 - 01 Oct 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nukes are good, having control of another countries nukes would be better.

Computer warfare!!!

You don't even have to go after nukes to fuck people up. If Facebook goes offline for just five minutes, ordinary citizens think the end of the world is nigh.

Should Putin ever knock facebook and twitter offline at the same time then the consequences are unthinkable.

Shocked
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 15:13 - 01 Oct 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:

Oh and the SNP hate it so close the base in Scotland and move it to Portsmouth or Plymouth. Sod giving the jobs to the people who don't want them.


I think the Scottish government with a strong mandate from the electorate in both the Scottish and UK national elections have been abundantly clear on their oppinion on this for quite some time now. Take them away.

The UK government continue to refuse to do so. Presumably because they don't want them in their own back yard?
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DrDonnyBrago
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PostPosted: 15:18 - 01 Oct 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

I voted "renew", just because it winds up the lefties in my office.... and most of Scotland.

I live near a military base, an airport and a dock so in any scenario targeting the UK I'm likely to get bombed first and unlikely to be in a position to care if my corpse is avenged. That said, I'd like to avoid the queues at the pearly gates/gates of hell so if we could hold off on any nuclear retaliation until I've checked in that'd be great.
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Ste
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PostPosted: 15:24 - 01 Oct 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

How unsafe / dangerous / risky are Aldermaston and Burghfield compared to Trident?
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staffo
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PostPosted: 16:22 - 01 Oct 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:
lots of points.


Its not about the use. Look at Ukraine, had nukes, gave them up under assurance from the yanks that they would look after them instead, got invaded. Would Russia have invaded still if they had nukes still? Who knows.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 16:33 - 01 Oct 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:
eradicating [North AfghanIslam] with a few would though. They wouldn't ever do it again.

I don't believe that the current or any realistic future UK El Presidente would have the stones to push the button.

Blair would because he's a crazed messianic fuckhead.

Saudi funded zealots flew some planes into a couple of skyscrapers, we tailed on to the invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq. Nuttier than a squirrel's pension.

Actually, the prospect of getting another Blair is a pretty good argument against having a nuclear arsenal.
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Im-a-Ridah
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PostPosted: 18:38 - 01 Oct 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

Strategic nuclear weapons like Trident make a lot of sense. Tactical nukes make less sense due to the advancement in targeting meaning that waves of missiles like Brimstone can be dropped from strike aircraft and find their own targets (e.g tanks). Nukes would only be more efficient if there was a very high density of targets, preferably with little armour.

Polarbear wrote:
I'm for it.....

MAD still holds true and even 1 submarine's worth could reduce Russia to a radioactive dump so whatever else Putin does, he has to be aware of that.

Who knows what countries are going to get their own nukes soon. Pakistan is a nuclear power as is Israel. Both as unstable as fuck. Throw Iran in the mix. Thumbs Down

Oh and the SNP hate it so close the base in Scotland and move it to Portsmouth or Plymouth. Sod giving the jobs to the people who don't want them.


Portsmouth isn't realistic as they need to be near deep water, hence why so many proposed sites are in Scotland. Portsmouth and Plymouth bases are literally in the centre of the city so again totally unsuitable for missile handling. Glasgow is some 30 miles from Faslane. One option considered was Weymouth for the subs but there is nowhere to store the warheads. The best south coast option for warhead storage/loading is somewhere like East Portlemouth, halfway between Paignton and Plymouth. The subs could be based in Plymouth.
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The Shaggy D.A.
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PostPosted: 19:02 - 01 Oct 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

Option (c) - get rid of them but don't tell anyone.
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bamt
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PostPosted: 19:19 - 01 Oct 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

Option (d) - inherit them from the previous gov, but tell the whole world that you'd never press the button, therefore having all the cost but none of the (perceived?) benefit in terms of MAD.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 19:34 - 01 Oct 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

Premier Corbyn's first act would be to blab that we went for option (c) a decade ago. Shhh!
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 19:47 - 01 Oct 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Shaggy D.A. wrote:
Option (c) - get rid of them but don't tell anyone.


We have previous on that front.

Vulcans were flying round with dummy Blue Steels for years following us using up pretty much all our fissile material in a dummy H-bomb test that was actually one of the largest A-bombs ever detonated.

The yield convinced the rest of the world we had the H-bomb and convinced the Yanks enough to share their data so we could build one for real.

I'd feel guilty if it wasn't for them taking our turbojet design then refusing to share their airframe research.
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 20:05 - 01 Oct 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'll pose the question I asked previously more directly.

If Syria sucessfully made an A-bomb, smuggled it into the UK and detonated it in central London. What good would a Trident nuclear missile be?

Would we really take out Damascus and everyone in it with a high yield warhead?

My answer. Of course we wouldn't. We'd go in there with overwhelming conventional force, backed by the US and the rest of the international community and dismantle their entire government and armed forces, occupy the couintry and start again from scratch. It wouldn't be a limited action or regime change pissanting round the edges like the gulf wars. It would be a full on invasion.

I am still at a loss as to why we (as in the international community) didn't stomp on their heads when they deployed mass-effect chemical weapons.
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Im-a-Ridah
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PostPosted: 20:25 - 01 Oct 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:
I'll pose the question I asked previously more directly.

If Syria sucessfully made an A-bomb, smuggled it into the UK and detonated it in central London. What good would a Trident nuclear missile be?

Would we really take out Damascus and everyone in it with a high yield warhead?

My answer. Of course we wouldn't. We'd We hope someone else would go in there with overwhelming conventional force, backed by the US and the rest of the international community 3 F16s from Belgium, 100 troops from Canada with restrictive ROE and a field hospital from Norway and dismantle their entire government and armed forces, occupy the couintry and start giving them aid again from scratch. It wouldn't be a limited action or regime change pissanting round the edges like the gulf wars. It would be a full on invasion waste of time.

I am still at a loss as to why we (as in the international community) didn't stomp on their heads when they deployed mass-effect chemical weapons.


Nuke 'em Thumbs Up

The Shaggy D.A. wrote:
Option (c) - get rid of them but don't tell anyone.


Russian spies would find out very quickly. The deception would cost even more than keeping the nukes for real anyway. You'd need to keep the subs and keep operating and maintaining them, and the same with operations at the warhead factories just to stop the Russians realising your deception from satellite images.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 00:03 - 02 Oct 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:
I'll pose the question I asked previously more directly.

If Syria sucessfully made an A-bomb, smuggled it into the UK and detonated it in central London. What good would a Trident nuclear missile be?

Would we really take out Damascus and everyone in it with a high yield warhead?

My answer. Of course we wouldn't. We'd go in there with overwhelming conventional force, backed by the US and the rest of the international community and dismantle their entire government and armed forces, occupy the couintry and start again from scratch. It wouldn't be a limited action or regime change pissanting round the edges like the gulf wars. It would be a full on invasion.

I am still at a loss as to why we (as in the international community) didn't stomp on their heads when they deployed mass-effect chemical weapons.


No we wouldn't. We haven't got the forces to do that. the Yanks wouldn't support us, their people at home wouldn't allow it. They promised Ukraine the earth and went back on it quicker than an Italian tank.

A few nukes from us into Damascus or wherever would be the easy option without relying on anyone else. Thumbs Up
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staffo
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PostPosted: 08:21 - 02 Oct 2015    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:

No we wouldn't. We haven't got the forces to do that. the Yanks wouldn't support us, their people at home wouldn't allow it. They promised Ukraine the earth and went back on it quicker than an Italian tank.

A few nukes from us into Damascus or wherever would be the easy option without relying on anyone else. Thumbs Up


Doubt we would do anything about it other than just whinge a bit.
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