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jjdugen
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PostPosted: 09:27 - 30 Sep 2016    Post subject: Ageism Reply with quote

I'm getting the taste for this politics thing.

I'm approaching 70. (Probably ride my blade further and faster than most half my age). A product of the 'socialist' movement post ww2, good health, food, housing, education, etc. So I am a living testimony to the aims of the Atlee government.
Now it would appear that we baby boomers are living too long and there are too many of us.
There is a bulge of about 25 million people aged late 50's to 80's. Considerably less aged 25 -50. (Think of a wineglass, us as the bowl, with a long thin stem and a slightly larger base of 1 - 20year olds). Yes, we do seem to have had the best of things and have houses and pensions and are generally living reasonably well. As we get into senility, more of us will need a bit of looking after.
BUT!. Even though we might be living 'longer', we are not immortal. All the discourse on how we are straining the NHS, inflating the housing market etc ALL overlook one vital element of the argument. Within the next ten, maybe fifteen years, the vast majority of 'us' will be gone. Dead that is.
All the accumulated wealth and property will be redistributed. The jobs we hold will be freed. The pressure of housing and hospitals will diminish or even be eradicated.
Those of you in your 20's and early 30's will suddenly inherit a considerably emptier country. If you want a growth industry to invest in, get a funeral parlour!
Before you shout, 'immigrants' I would look a the demographics going forward. Leave us wrinklys alone, you will inherit all we have managed to accrue so stop all this fear mongering and jealous winging!
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 09:43 - 30 Sep 2016    Post subject: Re: Ageism Reply with quote

jjdugen wrote:

All the accumulated wealth and property will be redistributed. The jobs we hold will be freed. The pressure of housing and hospitals will diminish or even be eradicated.


Here's the thing. A lot of boomers are eyeballs in debt. Think of mortgage equity release. Those inheritances may not exist and they may well leave you debt. Think of the Saga holidays and stuff advertised to old people.

Also you have to consider the supply side. If 15 million suddenly die then the supply side goes up like crazy. Meaning sure you get some stuff but it has considerably lower value due to all the other stuff coming onto the market as well.

jjdugen wrote:



Those of you in your 20's and early 30's will suddenly inherit a considerably emptier country. If you want a growth industry to invest in, get a funeral parlour!


Oh I know. I own a cemetery. Once you're dead you have to pay me rent Very Happy


jjdugen wrote:
Leave us wrinklys alone, you will inherit all we have managed to accrue so stop all this fear mongering and jealous winging!


That's IF you have anything to inherit other than debts. 16 million people don't have a pot to pish in in the UK.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37504449


Relevant

https://img.memecdn.com/This-Chinese-kid-is-richer-than-you_c_19170.jpg
[/quote]
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 10:02 - 30 Sep 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

We are probably the last generation that will actually have enough money to begin to enjoy retirement. Yes, there will be an elite on big pensions but the workers can carry on till they drop.

I don't think it bodes well for the country at all.
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Ste
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PostPosted: 10:06 - 30 Sep 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:
We are probably the last generation that will actually have enough money to begin to enjoy retirement.

BBC News today says:

Wealth of people in their 30s has 'halved in a decade'
People in their early 30s are half as wealthy as those now in their 40s were at the same age, a report finds.
Today's 30-something generation has missed out on house price increases and better pensions, according to research by the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
Those born in the early 1980s have an average wealth of £27,000 each, against the £53,000 those born in the 1970s had by the same age, said the IFS.
They will also find it harder to amass wealth in the future, it added.
The think tank found that people born in the early 1980s were the first post-war group not to have higher incomes in early adulthood than those born in the preceding decade.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37508968
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M.C
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PostPosted: 10:29 - 30 Sep 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

By the time you lot are dead you would have bankrupted the NHS and therefore the country Very Happy
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Kickstart
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PostPosted: 10:35 - 30 Sep 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ste wrote:
[
Wealth of people in their 30s has 'halved in a decade'
People in their early 30s are half as wealthy as those now in their 40s were at the same age, a report finds.


Problem is that it is not comparing like with like, as it is comparing wealth now in a recession with wealth then in a boom. Another crash in house prices could see the figures reversed within months.

All the best

Katy
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 10:43 - 30 Sep 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:
We are probably the last generation that will actually have enough money to begin to enjoy retirement.

Depends which generation you mean. I'm mid 40s, will have my mortgage paid off in the next 4 years (barring Krautbank triggering a global collapse), and have an unusually generous pension pot building up.

But there's no way I'll ever be able to retire while I'm still able to work. Not a chance in hell. Private sector annuities will be worth nothing unless you take them at 75 or 80, and a pittance even then, as providers figure that you might cling on to 90 or triple digits. Pension black holes including annuity provision are going to be the big economic issue of the next half century.

But it's not economics, its demographics. Promises-promises to the contrary, the Baby Boomers are not going to die off. They're just going to get older and sicker and more crotchety, and (rightly) cling on to their homes while sucking in more and more healthcare resources. Bizarre econopropaganda aside, pure consumers are not a benefit to an economy, and more than running around smashing windows is.

tl;dr version - if we keep going as we're going, then eventually everybody in the country will be in the business of wiping arses, or having their arse wiped.

Culling the old Legalising euthanasia is the only actual solution. The sooner and harder we grasp that nettle, the less painful it will be.
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jjdugen
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PostPosted: 11:00 - 30 Sep 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

'That's IF you have anything to inherit other than debts. 16 million people don't have a pot to pish in in the UK.'


I think you will find that the overwhelming debt of the population lies with the younger elements. Remember that the astronomical mortgages now demanded form a large part of that debt.
If the older gen are going on Saga holidays, they are not getting them on tick, its from their savings. (Unlike the youngsters who put everything straight onto their cards).
So, we all die off, in increasing numbers from now on. (You think a lot about death as you get to your allotted three score and ten). That's 25 million people gone. Lets say 15 million properties, as I see it, just wait a few years and you can have your pick. Yes, values will decrease, tough on those who saluted the flag and got themselves hitched to the banks for life. But, national debt will decrease rapidly.
All the jobs held down by the 50 - 68 year olds will become vacant, (Some 10 million BTW) as long as you have the skills to fill them.
Yes, the NHS will bear the burden, but end of life care is considerably cheaper than actual operations. And when we are gone, there will be no need for the level of hospital services we need right now.
No, on balance, you will inherit a country designed for 70 million people, but with an actual population of around 40 - 45 mill. Seems to me you are on a winner.
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Ste
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PostPosted: 11:25 - 30 Sep 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kickstart wrote:
Another crash in house prices could see the figures reversed within months.

The only question is which government will let it happen.

Or should that be which government will run out of ways to prop up the house market?
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 11:43 - 30 Sep 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

jjdugen wrote:
And when we are gone

When's that going to be? There's a huge industry devoted to keeping you ticking along, just alive enough to keep knocking back pharmaceuticals and blocking beds.

Until we cleanse Parliament of the Charlie Churches who keep voting down euthanasia, it'll be the long grey dribbling twilight for all of us.
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Tracey Suntan-King
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PostPosted: 12:03 - 30 Sep 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Now it would appear that we baby boomers are living too long and there are too many of us.


Google tells me that Sid and I qualify as baby boomers being born before 1964.

The debate about how BBs have it all has so far overlooked two salient facts. Our respective first mortgages were based on the same salary multiples that are used now. Mine was a 100% mortgage (they still exist) and we both remember paying mortgage interest at 14%. There was no money left over after paying your mortgage. Nothing for Sky TV, holidays or any form of luxury unless you count travelling to work to pay the effing mortgage a luxury. Oh yes and inflation was rampant, 9.5% in 1990. At least nowadays interest rates are very low and unlikely to rise beyond 4% in anyone's imagination, same with inflation, almost zero.

Any gains we've made from property have been earned, there was nothing easy or lucky about it.

Public sector pensions were excellent, they still are. Private pensions schemes were the preserve of senior employees, so many BBs have no pension at all unless they worked in the public sector. At least nowadays pretty well everyone will end up with a pension of some sort unless they are daft enough to opt out. Your pension won't grow like ours did, but that is offset by lower costs of borrowing and historically low inflation rates.

TL:DR Baby boomers didn't have it easy, it was a jam tomorrow scenario. Younger people now have a jam today expectation so there's none left for tomorrow. Crying or Very sad
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Derivative
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PostPosted: 13:23 - 30 Sep 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think that looking at finances is zooming out too far.

Money is a mechanism for distributing actual useful objects - we have an issue with the relative costs of those objects.

We had massive housebuilding in the past and we just, stopped. As we seemingly did with roads, railways, etcetera.

I don't really particularly attribute it to 'boomers' (there's plenty of suicidal chat on this by the youngers too), but I think that certain sectors of society have become too 'comfortable' and have started to sabotage progress.

We worry about views, green space, wildlife, basically everything that affects the comfort of those that already won, whilst ignoring the fact that boxing people in to flat shares and slowly prolifying the young does not make an efficient economy.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 13:23 - 30 Sep 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tracey Suntan-King wrote:
Our respective first mortgages were based on the same salary multiples that are used now. Mine was a 100% mortgage (they still exist) and we both remember paying mortgage interest at 14%. There was no money left over after paying your mortgage. Nothing for Sky TV, holidays or any form of luxury unless you count travelling to work to pay the effing mortgage a luxury. Oh yes and inflation was rampant, 9.5% in 1990.]At least nowadays interest rates are very low and unlikely to rise beyond 4% in anyone's imagination, same with inflation, almost zero.


Nope Very Happy

Inflation is what gave you a massive advantage. The supply and demand function of the labour market also worked in your favour in regards to inflation.

Lets work this out.

In 1969 average wages were £20 a week ~ £1040PA
In 1970 average wages were £24 a week ~ £1248PA
In 1971 average wages were £28 a week ~ £1456PA
By 1975 it was £2,496
By 1980 it was £5,720

Now we compare it to this: (taken from nationwide)

House prices:

1969 £4,145
1970 £4,378
1971 £4,741
1975 £10,388
1980 £22,677

So if you take out a mortgage inflation essentially erases the debt as your wages increase along with inflation. A bloke who bought his house in 1969 in as little as 3-4 years his mortgage was reduced to a much smaller proportion of his income. So in 1975 house costs 400% of your yearly wage. You keep the same house in 5 years time you're total debt is only 200% of your total yearly wage. Yes there is interest but we're ignoring it for simplicity.

These inflationary events erased most of your debt and gave you a huge advantage.

Companies couldn't outsource they couldn't go overseas. So they had to pony up or go out of business. Todays wage rises don't work as companies can outsource they can automate if they choose to do so. I'm pretty sure most don't get 20-25% wage increases pretty much every year. So the same effect doesn't happen.

The 1980s also heralded the end of 3.5 your salary? No can you fog up a mirror! Here's as much money as you want!! Type lending.



In the most extreme case hyperinflation the debtors win. Lets say I owe 3 million quid. Yet I make say £60K a year. This is a bad situation. Hyperinflation kicks in and suddenly I'm being paid £500K a day. The 3 million quid debt suddenly becomes trivial. Though of course if this happened there would be much bigger problems to worry about.
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Derivative
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PostPosted: 13:30 - 30 Sep 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

WRT this:

Quote:
Nothing for Sky TV, holidays or any form of luxury unless you count travelling to work to pay the effing mortgage a luxury.


Part of the problem I suspect is that young folk see this as basically rose tinted 'back in my day' nonsense, but I wonder if it depends on region.

In Hull, Sky TV and iPhones and stuff actually matter, because you're talking about a 10-20K deposit and a 100K mortgage or whatever. Less if you're happy on an estate.

In London, it's more like 30-60K and 300K. Your salary multiplier is far more important than the deposit unless you save for 10 years or whatever and get a 60% mortgage.

I mean, the way I see it, getting a mortgage is the win condition with interest rates being what they are. The repayments would make up something like 15-20% of my income. The question is what the fuck you do when rates go through the roof.

And generally I think the idea of 'grin and bear it' has gone to an extent because "we" are less willing to just do whatever the fuck the bankers tell us to.

Buying a house for 500K at 3% is basically giving your bank a licence to sandpaper backdoor you when the BofE change some numbers in a spreadsheet.


Last edited by Derivative on 13:35 - 30 Sep 2016; edited 2 times in total
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M.C
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PostPosted: 13:32 - 30 Sep 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tracey Suntan-King wrote:

The debate about how BBs have it all has so far overlooked two salient facts. Our respective first mortgages were based on the same salary multiples that are used now. Mine was a 100% mortgage (they still exist) and we both remember paying mortgage interest at 14%. There was no money left over after paying your mortgage. Nothing for Sky TV, holidays or any form of luxury unless you count travelling to work to pay the effing mortgage a luxury. Oh yes and inflation was rampant, 9.5% in 1990. At least nowadays interest rates are very low and unlikely to rise beyond 4% in anyone's imagination, same with inflation, almost zero.

Any gains we've made from property have been earned, there was nothing easy or lucky about it.

House prices hadn't exploded then. I know London's a bad example (in terms of the whole country), but a flat in Elephant and Castle that was bought for 50k in 1995 sold for 500k in 2005. Even in other parts of the country it's a similar picture, I know someone in Blackburn who's parents bought their house for 28k and it's now worth 200k.

These gains are not earned, as Itchy said (in a previous discussion) it's undeserved wealth which baby boomers are protecting.
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Derivative
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PostPosted: 14:00 - 30 Sep 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

I just think it's completely different in a way that isn't being appreciated.

'Sacrifice' is kind of a ... category error? It describes what happens if you're in the right group.

Yes, if you're on the borderline, you'll have to sacrifice - the point is that the border used to be at, say, 1 full time earner, later 2 full time earners, is now at 2 full time professional earners quite far into their career, and the employment market has shifted such that reaching that state is more difficult than it was before.

I don't think anyone is bothered by scrimping a bit, it's more achieving the required income, and specifically the fact that while individuals might be able to do it if they focus hard, the overall picture is one of far fewer people getting on.
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Derivative
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PostPosted: 14:24 - 30 Sep 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oh, there's also stuff like student loans.

Back in the day it wasn't really required. 10% or so of the population got them, the ones that did got them free but we're talking about an elite here anyway.

Nowadays it's kind of standard for any job that isn't manual. The first step on the ladder in most careers is a graduate scheme.

So you have people taking three year courses in dog grooming to go and apply as an accountant.

Now, even if they do get the big money, they've got an added 9% marginal tax rate.

Again, not an absolute disaster, but another thing that pushes the boundary for affordability further up.

Of my close friends, at the moment extrapolating I'm the only one that has a chance of paying it off pre 35. Everyone else will basically be paying 9% above 17K forever. The 9K fees lot? Laughing

I mean, basically, it's a statistical problem. One can go self-employed, start a business, become a millionaire, buy three flats in Central London and it's a win. But the general picture isn't made up of these few success stories, it's made up of Sports Direct and Tesco and graduate salaries of 20K.
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Suntan Sid
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PostPosted: 14:53 - 30 Sep 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:
The supply and demand function of the labour market also worked in your favour in regards to inflation.


Talking of rose tinted specs, unless you lived in the SE the, so called, "boom" in the eighties didn't happen!
For the rest of the UK you just hoped and prayed that you weren't made redundant!
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Kickstart
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PostPosted: 16:17 - 30 Sep 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

M.C wrote:
These gains are not earned, as Itchy said (in a previous discussion) it's undeserved wealth which baby boomers are protecting.


Who probably won't gain from them much. For most it is likely the baby boomers children who will gain from them, who are probably the ones complaining.

Derivative wrote:
Oh, there's also stuff like student loans.

Back in the day it wasn't really required. 10% or so of the population got them, the ones that did got them free but we're talking about an elite here anyway.


While there used to be student grants, you would only get a full one if your parents earnings were low enough, and even then it wouldn't really be enough to live on. And you can forget any idea of affordable loans to top them up.

All the best

Katy
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M.C
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PostPosted: 17:05 - 30 Sep 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kickstart wrote:

Who probably won't gain from them much. For most it is likely the baby boomers children who will gain from them, who are probably the ones complaining.

How so? The baby boomers kids will inherit when their parents have the decency to die, but for everyone else it's tough shit.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 17:57 - 30 Sep 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

In principle, house prices will drop as the Boomers die off and their mansions come on the market, or their offsprings' newly surplus homes.

In practice, all of the houses that come up on my father's 4-big-bed-detached estate are immediately snapped up by young asian families bearing sacks of cash.

Sometimes literally cash. His new next door neighbours are lovely young couple, very charming, wife looks about 14. They put up a dozen CCTV cameras, then vanished. Every few weeks, a convoy of pyjama wearing relatives turn up in Mercs and unloads stacks of boxes, then for the next few days there's a swarm of nedmobiles and scootays turning up all hours of the day and night.

Mid lever dealers, of course, but ever so polite when they're at home, no trouble at all.
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Kickstart
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PostPosted: 19:52 - 30 Sep 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

M.C wrote:

How so? The baby boomers kids will inherit when their parents have the decency to die, but for everyone else it's tough shit.


Most people have parents and don't just suddenly appear. Some of the younger generations might have to wait until they become the one doing the inheriting.

All the best

Katy
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Derivative
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PostPosted: 20:58 - 30 Sep 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the inheritance argument is flawed mostly because it's based on some abstract concept of fairness, rather than the fact that housing is often a means to an end.

I think it makes sense for city workers to live nearby and for older folk that pop in every now and then for culture to live further out.

I see the prevalence of council estates in Central London in much the same way. The idea was presumably to mix rich and poor and foster community, but what it's turned into is mixing the extremely rich with the extremely poor, people that can't really understand each other at all.

So, yeah, it's not really based on greed, but rather what's best for the country, the economy, general happiness, etc. You want the productive workforce to actually feel like they're getting a good deal, rather than just slaving away until they're 50 at which point they'll inherit the house and it won't have mattered much what they did before.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 21:09 - 30 Sep 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

Inheritance, ha! Dad died suddenly of a stroke in 2002 without troubling the NHS. Mum died recently after 8 years in a nursing home (Alzheimer's) funded by the sale of her own house. That money was about to run out and we three offspring were about to be means-tested before The State would consider supporting her care. In the end my parents were a net contributor to The State. I will be too provided I manage to work till I drop. A retirement would have been nice. Playing the game all wrong.
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Kickstart
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PostPosted: 21:16 - 30 Sep 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

Derivative wrote:
I think the inheritance argument is flawed mostly because it's based on some abstract concept of fairness, rather than the fact that housing is often a means to an end.


Always has been an end itself, any increase in value is pretty meaningless unless sold. And if nobody is buying then the value is pretty much void.

All the best

Katy
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