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steve the grease
Trackday Trickster



Joined: 26 Jan 2018
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PostPosted: 17:36 - 20 Nov 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

So if they ban fuel powered cars being sold from 2030 that still leaves all the cars sold on Dec 31st 2029 which will have an approximate ten year life span. I see petrol and diesel being sold for a while yet.
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Tuberculosis
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Joined: 17 May 2019
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PostPosted: 19:00 - 20 Nov 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Easy-X wrote:
A typical family car you could rinse 20 years out of easily and 40 wouldn't be outlandish if you can get the parts so nothing is really going to change with regards to petrol sales, forecourts etc. for decades after the ban.


Rubbish! Sorry, but it is. Between now and 2030 petrol sales will steadily decline as more and more people move over to EVs, and even more so from 2030 when ICE vehicle sales are banned.

I would argue that petrol sales will still be around for some time afterwards (as others have already said pumps will gradually start to be replaced with charging stations) but to argue that petrol supply/demand will not change is absurd. Petrol will remain available for a long time to come unless the sale of petrol is also banned by the government as well as the sale of ICE vehicles.
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Easy-X
World Chat Champion



Joined: 08 Mar 2019
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PostPosted: 20:41 - 20 Nov 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tuberculosis wrote:
Easy-X wrote:
A typical family car you could rinse 20 years out of easily and 40 wouldn't be outlandish if you can get the parts so nothing is really going to change with regards to petrol sales, forecourts etc. for decades after the ban.


Rubbish! Sorry, but it is. Between now and 2030 petrol sales will steadily decline as more and more people move over to EVs, and even more so from 2030 when ICE vehicle sales are banned.

I would argue that petrol sales will still be around for some time afterwards (as others have already said pumps will gradually start to be replaced with charging stations) but to argue that petrol supply/demand will not change is absurd. Petrol will remain available for a long time to come unless the sale of petrol is also banned by the government as well as the sale of ICE vehicles.


Huh?
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Tuberculosis
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PostPosted: 21:09 - 20 Nov 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Easy-X wrote:
Huh?


I know I'm usually the dispenser of the nonsensical rantings of a maladjusted lunatic, and I'm already 8 bottle of Whitstable Bay into the evening, but I've re-read my post several times and it all seems to make sense to me Thinking
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Shaft
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Joined: 27 Dec 2010
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PostPosted: 23:18 - 20 Nov 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

steve the grease wrote:
So if they ban fuel powered cars being sold from 2030 that still leaves all the cars sold on Dec 31st 2029 which will have an approximate ten year life span. I see petrol and diesel being sold for a while yet.


You will always get some somewhere, but it will start to become difficult, in the same way that 5 star was promised to continue and leaded fuel after that.

I still think there will have to be incredibly significant improvements to infrastructure and pricing to make full EVs viable, which we won't achieve in 10 years, but that won't stop successive governments trying to stick to the new deadline.

There needs to be a push forward in a different technology - to me, at this moment, it looks like hydrogen, but that means all the manufacturers need to keep the tooling for ICE's
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 00:41 - 21 Nov 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Shaft wrote:
There needs to be a push forward in a different technology - to me, at this moment, it looks like hydrogen, but that means all the manufacturers need to keep the tooling for ICE's


Methane, Natural Gas or the latest, Ammonia. All of which are easy to transport or have exiting infrastructure. Could be used in some form of ICE (but cleaner than petrol) or cleanly in fuel cells. Downside: nowhere near enough production at the moment for any of those... gas probably having the best head start.

And another thing: Boris is intending to ban the sale of ICE cars and vans from 2030... in the UK. ICE cars will continue to be made, sold and used in the rest of the world. (Keep an eye out for a clause banning imports.) Oil refining will continue with or without us.

Europe, Japan and a few other places might follow suit with similar bans but outside of California the rest of America won't, China won't, India won't and those latter two are markets growing exponentially.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 01:44 - 21 Nov 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

LNG is a viable fuel and there is plenty around the world being 'mined' and transported. It is already used in ships diesels and boilers to reduce emissions. It has been trailed successfully in large lorries in the US. LNG bunker barges are available in Rotterdam and other large European ports.

It is basically what we all use in our homes so the only change to infrastructure would be the need to cool it down to -160C for liquifaction and storage. It's no big deal, it's done in many plants around the world and even on some ships at the moment.
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Robby
Dirty Old Man



Joined: 16 May 2002
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PostPosted: 10:24 - 21 Nov 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

A replacement fuel, even if it happens, is not going to be something you burn to create carbon dioxide. That's the whole point.

Whatever does happen - whether it ends up being hydrogen or electricity - massive infrastructure changes will be required. Electricity will need more capacity everywhere. Hydrogen could repurpose some natural gas infrastructure, but would still require a huge amount of work - hydrogen will leak out of much smaller holes than natural gas.

Of course, this doesn't happen all at once. The big advantage for electric is that it can be done gradually as electric car ownership increases and (theoretically) infrastructure can keep up with demand.

Other countries will do different things. It's a weak argument to not do something just in case someone else doesn't do it. Even weaker when dealing with China, who have the advantage (in this case) of central planning and a totalitarian government. They can change direction very quickly.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 12:41 - 21 Nov 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Robby wrote:
It's a weak argument to not do something just in case someone else doesn't do it.


Not an argument as such, people don't like change and I'm just pointing out it's not quite as dramatic as it first sounds so no need to go full-on Chicken Little Smile
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