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Bhud
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PostPosted: 16:12 - 07 Apr 2021    Post subject: MAG tries to get a little bit too clever Reply with quote

Of course I've got my opinions and won't bore anyone else with them.

But this new development is interesting from a strategic point of view. It doesn't have to even be about motorbikes at all. Just look at the options available in this poll:

https://www.mag-uk.org/mag-polls-motorcyclists-regarding-the-petrol-engine/

It's also very easy to predict (with fairly high probability) what happens next.

For £30, electric bike owners join MAG in increasing numbers (which is what MAG wants). Unintended consequence: they then impose their will on others, regarding the policy direction of MAG. Possible end result: MAG begins to start campaigning against petrol motorcycles, because it's what electric bike people (increasing proportion of their membership) want them to do. The petrol diehards then quit MAG. Then the electric bike lot do as well, because there was nothing to actually campaign about (i.e. electric motorcycles are not subject to emissions restrictions).

I'm not saying I'm in favour or against - it's boring. I'd probably be more active on BCF if I thought my views were majority ones anyway.

Just that this little strategem is interesting.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 16:36 - 07 Apr 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

We've been here before but briefly: sale of new motorcycles might be affected from 2030 so we'll be burning dinosaur juice indefinitely until they stop selling even that. Many decades away. And TBF the existing electric motorcycles now aren't terrible, just limited by range and charge. Think of what they'll be like in 20 years!

Anyhoo, I have a plan to EFI a classic '80s bike and run it on bio-ethanol Wink
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Ste
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PostPosted: 16:41 - 07 Apr 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Survey Monkey... we could really fuck up their results. Twisted Evil
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GettinBetter
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PostPosted: 16:56 - 07 Apr 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting point, but I seriously don't think the 'experts' who will be making those decisions have actually grasped the full ramifications of their decisions. It's a vast can of worms.

This page for instance says nothing about whether the resources are actually available to rollout electric vehicles for everyone.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/11/battery-batteries-electric-cars-carbon-sustainable-power-energy/

I read elsewhere in the past that the resources don't actually exist, so how far down the road will they go before they realise it can't be done, or least not to the extent they dream of.

I got a feeling they will ban fossil before the charging/replacement infrastucture is setup, only to realise all is not going to plan, then spend an eternity covering it up, pretending it's all fine.

I can't see the car batteries lasting 10 yrs, and what is the outlay for new batteries, or do you replace the whole car, most people don't keep a car 10 yrs, so the whole car will be judged upon the condition of the battery.
https://www.large.net/news/8au43qb.html
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Evil Hans
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PostPosted: 17:07 - 07 Apr 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Says it's open to all riders ... won't let you submit without entering a membership number or affiliated club name.

Do MAG go out of their way to annoy me, or are they just fuckwits?
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Fat Angry Scotsman
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PostPosted: 17:10 - 07 Apr 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Easy-X wrote:
We've been here before but briefly: sale of new motorcycles might be affected from 2030 so we'll be burning dinosaur juice indefinitely until they stop selling even that. Many decades away. And TBF the existing electric motorcycles now aren't terrible, just limited by range and charge. Think of what they'll be like in 20 years!

Anyhoo, I have a plan to EFI a classic '80s bike and run it on bio-ethanol Wink


To be honest I don't think it is many decades away from mass adoption. Once you get past a certain point on the graph of diffusion of innovations, it is over for fossil fuels. To me, that point will come when the number of people with electric cars means that the current level of fuel stations becomes unviable and forces the closures of fuel stations due to reduced income.

This then means that motorists with engines now need to more further from their home to fuel their vehicles, or establish new routines to ensure the fuelling of their vehicles. This does not stop the continued adoption of electric vehicles: instead it will likely accelerate it. As more and more fuel stations become financial unviable, the more onerous fuelling a vehicle will become. Eventually it gets to the point where the owner cannot be bothered with the additional hassle that a fossil fuel vehicle brings and at that point it's almost over.

Eventually fuel stations will become so niche that the product (petrol or diesel) itself will escalate greatly in price as it is no longer a commodity but a specialty and thus we enter the laggards stage of the graph of diffusion of innovation.

There will be the use of fuel for many decades but it will be in small quantities and only by those who are the last hold-outs. Probably an insignificant percentage of the population. It will be like classic cars: where only those who hold their fuel powered car for the passion (or whatever) of it rather than the economic or practical utility of the vehicle.

I would expect this process will take no more than 2040 given that most cars get scrapped as they become uneconomical to continue repairing to keep roadworthy and that fuel powered vehicles will be unable to be purchased new from 2030 onwards.

Just my thoughts on the subject.
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Ste
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PostPosted: 17:13 - 07 Apr 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

GettinBetter wrote:
I got a feeling they will ban fossil before the charging/replacement infrastucture is setup, only to realise all is not going to plan, then spend an eternity covering it up, pretending it's all fine.

Remember the roll out of smart meters where every household was meant to be offered one by the end of 2020? That didn't quite happen and it's been moved to June 2025 instead.

That's why we can be confident that the ban on sales of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030 won't happen. Laughing
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doggone
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PostPosted: 17:17 - 07 Apr 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

GettinBetter wrote:


I read elsewhere in the past that the resources don't actually exist,

They don't, if pressed the enthusiasts call you a dinosaur for not believing that technology will automagically evolve sufficiently to overcome the laws of physics.
Then they attack you for *obviously* wishing we still had horses and steam engines.

The clear difference is that IC Engines are far more convenient, efficient and affordable than steam - so rapidly took over completely.
When electric vehicles also fulfill that criteria they will also take off.
Adding tax based costs to the most efficient vehicle (still ICE) isn't the same thing at all and will mainly make any form of personal transport unaffordable to many.
They like that idea too because being London-centric they imagine the rest of the country ought to be able to do everything on train bus or cycle too if forced by taxation to not be so stubborn about it.
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Ste
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PostPosted: 17:19 - 07 Apr 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Evil Hans wrote:
Says it's open to all riders ... won't let you submit without entering a membership number or affiliated club name.

Your lack of creativity disappoints me. Razz

Do you want MAG to:
Arrow Accept any ban on the sale of new petrol-powered motorcycles

On a scale of 1 (not important at all) to 10 (extremely important) how important is this subject to you?
100

MAG has the option to campaign with organisations representing other vehicle and driver groups. Do you
Arrow Reject the idea of MAG working with other groups opposing a ban on the sale of new petrol-powered private vehicles?

On a scale of 1 (not important at all) to 10 (extremely important) how important is this subject to you?
100

If the sale of new petrol-powered motorcycles was banned, would you:
Arrow Buy a zero-emission motorcycle when there are still petrol-powered motorcycles available?

On a scale of 1 (not important at all) to 10 (extremely important) is how important this subject to you?
69

Are you a MAG member?
Yes

Please enter Membership number or affiliate club name.
eleventy

Wink
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Bhud
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PostPosted: 17:40 - 07 Apr 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm sure I must have predicted this move by MAG, in a post a couple of years ago. However, I can't be bothered to find it right now.

The idea behind MAG was that riders were people who used motorcycles instead of cars as basic transport or as a means to work (e.g. couriers). This still happens a lot (e.g. Deliveroo riders) but MAG never managed to attract them as members because they ride unsexy scooters. Nevertheless it was about "rights", i.e. things that common people in the wider population found more acceptable. For example, a guy out on his own having fun on a nice day on a motorcycle doesn't have any rights, in the eyes of the general population. He's even considered a problem! But there are many people who use similar machines, creating exactly the same (or much more) emissions and noise to take them to work or to deliver pizzas, and society accepts to some degree that they have "rights". Because they have rights, it's possible for the leisure rider to be left in peace. This is how this thing has worked, to date.

The trouble is, electric bikes don't substitute for petrol ones because the energy density, recharging times, etc. just isn't there. The political and ideological framework is well ahead of the technology. It's putting the cart before the horse.

Oh, I know people will say with absolute conviction that it will be there in the future. Just around the corner, etc. It seems very convincing whenever someone, even a very smart person, has an honest belief in a future event, but this is merely an optimism bias. Self-driving cars, for example, were mentioned in the Queen's Speech a few years ago, but Elon was simply lying about where the state of tech development was at the time. Stuart Garner was going to revive the British motorcycle industry and he convinced a lot of people too. Those people weren't stupid - they were just wrong because they were looking at probability the wrong way (completely upside down). A strategy that appeared to have worked in the past, but in fact it never did. As things stand right now, you can't tour on an electric bike in the same way as you can with a conventional one. You would have to take a lot of time out to rest while your bike was being charged, and your route would be dictated by the availability of charging stations. This was one of the arguments for excluding bikes from the 2030 ban.

Now, individually, MAG members might think that petrol engined motorcycles will slip through an ever-tightening regulatory net, if MAG becomes an electric bike organisation. But, in time, they'll find that MAG simply sold out on them.
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doggone
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PostPosted: 17:48 - 07 Apr 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

The 2030 ban is ludicrously optimistic, the question is whether they will backtrack from it before pretty much destroying civilisation as we know it.
It really is that dangerous because the effect of taking away affordable personal mobility will be widespread unemployment and social unrest.
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 19:40 - 07 Apr 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Technology is going to overtake electric cars and go diectly to Hydrogen. Either as a fuel cell or as a direct injection ICE.

If you get a new gas central heating boiler as part of a government grant, it HAS to be hydrogen convertible. What does that tell us? Presumably that the intent is to convert the mains gas network fro natural gas to hydrogen... That's the logistics problem taken care of, they can set up a filling station anywhere there's a gas main.

For what it's worth, my enfields can be readily converted to run on 100% alcohol but I'd probably have to dig out my enormous touring tank because they don't do many mpg.

In fact, if they had approaching 100% ethanol readily available at the pumps, I might be tempted to do so because I'd be able to ditch the compression plates from my 612 motor and run it at 13:1. There might be a burgeoning trade in converting older bikes to ethanol safe and tuning the fuck out of them. I mean, if they're going to supply 113 octane fuel at the pump, you may as well take advantage of it...

*Checks google* Woah. Hydrogen has an octane rating of >130 RON! I think powersquirt need to be getting their A-game out if that's going to become readily available.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 21:20 - 07 Apr 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don’t rate battery technology’s chances, nor hydrogen. Ultimately I think the extraordinarily well developed ICE and it’s fuel distribution infrastructure will win out, only instead of fossil fuels it will be bio-fuels made from the materials we currently call waste. Chemistry still has a lot of scope there. In contrast battery chemistry has had over 100 years.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 21:43 - 07 Apr 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fat Angry Scotsman wrote:
(had a bit of a cry)


Chin up, lad! They could shut all the petrol forecourts tomorrow and you'd still get to kill asthmatic kittens with your dino juice burner Wink

Same solution as those living out in the sticks who don't have gas piped from the mains: man comes round with a tanker. If anything post-petrol will be more convenient (albeit horrendously expensive) than going miles out of the way to find a garage still open Smile
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 22:01 - 07 Apr 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
I don’t rate battery technology’s chances, nor hydrogen. Ultimately I think the extraordinarily well developed ICE and it’s fuel distribution infrastructure will win out, only instead of fossil fuels it will be bio-fuels made from the materials we currently call waste. Chemistry still has a lot of scope there. In contrast battery chemistry has had over 100 years.


Lithium Ion batteries are barely usable: ages to charge and a useful lifetime of 3 years. Stopping people buying electric cars might get round the latter problem, i.e. leasing. Even energy storage is not a massive issue for the the majority of trips, e.g. commuting. Energy transfer however...

If we assume a flow rate of 10 gallons per minute for a standard petrol pump (thanks, Google!) and an average vehicle that does 50 miles to the gallon you would need 48 seconds to achieve a 400 mile range. 400 miles is the range of the latest Tesla S and that takes 7 hours to charge. Let's be generous and go with instead with a fast charge of 34 mins to get just over half that range:

30 seconds to fuel the apocalypse versus
30 minutes to save the planet Shocked

That plus your batteries are fucked after 3 years, tough sell Sad
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GettinBetter
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PostPosted: 17:21 - 08 Apr 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Easy-X wrote:
....If we assume a flow rate of 10 gallons per minute for a standard petrol pump (thanks, Google!) and an average vehicle that does 50 miles to the gallon you would need 48 seconds to achieve a 400 mile range. 400 miles is the range of the latest Tesla S and that takes 7 hours to charge. Let's be generous and go with instead with a fast charge of 34 mins to get just over half that range:

30 seconds to fuel the apocalypse versus
30 minutes to save the planet Shocked (


I think we could effectively engineer that issue into a comparable time zone.

If all vehicle batteries were manufactured with the same case size and connections (maybe a few sizes then) they could be plug and play.
A dedicated forecourt where you drive in and the 'cell' is removed and replaced by a machine below ground in a minute, and you pay through your reg number without getting out the car. The old ones are recharged/serviced elsewhere.
All manufacturers have to do is standardise their batteries/connectors. That IS a game changer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JtEEy2dLRM
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 18:06 - 08 Apr 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

GettinBetter wrote:
All manufacturers have to do is standardise their batteries/connectors. That IS a game changer.

Ta-Da!
https://www.motorcyclenews.com/news/electric-motorbike-swappable-batteries/

Quote:
Honda, KTM, Piaggio and Yamaha have signed an agreement to create a ‘swappable batteries consortium’ with a view to standardising batteries in electric bikes.

Settling on a standard size and shape does limit further battery development to an extent though.
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GettinBetter
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PostPosted: 18:12 - 08 Apr 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
....Settling on a standard size and shape does limit further battery development to an extent though.


That's what makes me think there would be a couple of sizes, but it'll always be like buying a new processor only to find nothing fits your old mobo socket. It's constant evolution.... we'll get shafted of course.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 22:02 - 08 Apr 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Deep sea mining to help make electric vehicles. Confused
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/science-environment-56678976

I also enjoy the irony of Extreme-e Racing; transporting race teams to some of the most remote and fragile corners of the planet to supposedly highlight the challenges faced by different eco-systems.
Doh!
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Fat Angry Scotsman
Trackday Trickster



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PostPosted: 18:49 - 09 Apr 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Easy-X wrote:
Fat Angry Scotsman wrote:
(had a bit of a cry)


Chin up, lad! They could shut all the petrol forecourts tomorrow and you'd still get to kill asthmatic kittens with your dino juice burner Wink

Same solution as those living out in the sticks who don't have gas piped from the mains: man comes round with a tanker. If anything post-petrol will be more convenient (albeit horrendously expensive) than going miles out of the way to find a garage still open Smile


I’m confused, what did I cry about? Embarassed
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 00:41 - 10 Apr 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fat Angry Scotsman wrote:
I’m confused, what did I cry about? Embarassed


Sorry, I thought you were lamenting the loss of petrol stations and therefore the ICE.

Here's a thought: assuming the last petrol bike rolls out in 2030 (although nothing has actually been said to that effect as yet) will they keep the 40 year rolling historic classification? I suspect they might freeze it at that point and we'll see people whizzing about on '80s bikes rocking black & silver plates Shocked
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stinkwheel
Bovine Proctologist



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PostPosted: 01:07 - 10 Apr 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

My mate was honking about with us on his 1170 katana the other day. Now tax and MOT exempt.

In three years, 1st gen GPZ900Rs (first out of the box 150mph bike) will be tax and MOT exempt historic vehicles.
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Fat Angry Scotsman
Trackday Trickster



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PostPosted: 13:07 - 11 Apr 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Easy-X wrote:
Fat Angry Scotsman wrote:
I’m confused, what did I cry about? Embarassed


Sorry, I thought you were lamenting the loss of petrol stations and therefore the ICE.

Here's a thought: assuming the last petrol bike rolls out in 2030 (although nothing has actually been said to that effect as yet) will they keep the 40 year rolling historic classification? I suspect they might freeze it at that point and we'll see people whizzing about on '80s bikes rocking black & silver plates Shocked


Oh it's alright mate, I thought I was being called out for my reaction to the ending of Titanic Embarassed
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