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| Tierbirdy |
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Tierbirdy
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| Ste |
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Ste
Not Work Safe
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Tierbirdy
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 Posted: 18:12 - 01 Jun 2025  Post subject: |
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| Ste wrote: |
It's quite possible to explain to people why they're wrong.
You're well aware of the overall gist of what people wanted from Brexit.
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No, because nobody could agree on what it meant. How many times did we hear "people knew what they were voting for!" when it was pointed out how badly things were going in the transitional period. And the definition of Brexit changing every five minutes, hard brexit, soft brexit, Norway style deal, Swiss style deal, "Lets go WTO!", no deal brexit. Was it about migration? EU regulations? ECHR? Wages?
Lets for now imagine it was purely about migration:
| Quote: |
What level of net migration per year is sustainable? Fifty thousand? One hundred thousand? Two hundred thousand? Five hundred thousand? One million?
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Good question, and not one that has an easy or short answer. It depends on what sustainability means in context: economic, demographic, environmental?
Why is migration inherently a bad thing? Part of the problem is that during the campaigning, nobody was willing to stand up and advertise the benefits of migration, instead all we got was Daily Mail and its Schroedingers Migrant who is both coming here to take your job, and coming here to be unemployed and live on benefits.
OBR projections from 2023/4 suggest the UK needs net migration of 250,000–300,000 per year just to:
- Maintain current tax revenue per capita.
- Stabilize the dependency ratio (working-age people vs retirees).
- Support long-term fiscal sustainability (especially pensions and NHS).
The 2023 study also states that UK fiscal health improves significantly with sustained net migration of circa 315,000/year.
From a demographics point of view, everyone knows the UK isnt having enough babies. Most of the developed world isnt, because we're all too busy going to uni and having careers, and very few households have the luxury of being able to survive on a single earner income anymore.
Latest figures show an average of 1.5 births per woman, with a birth rate of 2.1 needed just to sustain the population. Japan and S. Korea are both excellent examples of this with an average birth rate of 1.2, with low immigration, low birth rates, and a rapidly aging population. Its incredibly difficult to naturally increase birth rates once youre stuck in this situation, its a vicious doom loop of shrinking populations aging further. So immigration is neccessary to keep the country going. The current projection for the UK from the ONS is that by the late 2040s the UK birth rate will be similar to Japan around 1.3. South Korea has a birth rate of 0.7 which is causing a massive population crisis, and even with the government paying Korean couples £10k to get married and £750 a month to have children, its still not rising. There has not been a single example in history of a country recovering from a birth rate of below 1, the closest was Russia in the 90s was at 1.1 which through a tonne of cash, maternity benefits, and changes to equality laws, has just managed to scrape it back to 1.5 at present.
It'll take generations to raise it in the UK, assuming we do, and until then migration is a vital part of the solution to how do you keep the country running.
Now from a social/environmental point, housing, resources and services etc. Yes immigration does place a strain on these, however a large part of this is down to piss poor planning by consecutive governments for decades. We havent been building enough for a long time, and now thats becoming even more of a problem than it was before. Labour talk a big game with their planning reforms and house building targets, lets hope it pays off because itll be better for everyone.
| Quote: |
How many arrivals by small boat each year is sustainable? Hundreds? Thousands? Tens of thousands?
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Ok so, small boats, well what else are they supposed to do? The last gov closed down all the safe legal migration routes.
- well they should stay in whatever safe country they get to first!
They dont have to, The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) is clear: “there is no requirement under international law for asylum-seekers to seek protection in the first safe country they reach”. And if they already have family in the UK and know a little English why wouldnt they want to come here? The UK has a long history of colonialism, meaning a LOT of these countries immigrants/asylum seekers are coming from, English is a common second or third language and a country they know at least something about.
- but its all fighting age males coming over! Wheres the women and children?
Yes, it is young fit men coming over, because its an incredibly long and dangerous journey, the sick, children and elderly would probably die along the way so they stay behind with the women to care for them. So the men who might survive the trip make the journey to try and send money back home to support their family and find a safe/legal way over for them when they can.
- we cant afford to put them up, they cost too much!
Wrong again, lets look at a couple of studies shall we?
UCL Study (Dustmann & Frattini, 2014):
EEA migrants (post-2000) +£2,610
Non-EEA migrants (post-2000) –£100
UK-born citizens –£1,900
Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) / Oxford Migration Observatory
Focus 2024: Lifetime fiscal contribution
This analysis considers long-term effects, and adjusts for costs of children, education, health care, pensions, etc.
Typical recent migrant (working-age, post-2000)
+£78,000 to +£120,000
UK-born average citizen
Close to zero or slightly negative, because they use services across full life (childhood + retirement).
So the average immigrant financially contributes a LOT more to the country than you or I do.
- We should train our own carers/farm labourers/healthcare assistants/plumbers/construction labourers/HGV drivers rather than import cheap foreign ones!
That would be nice, but why arent British workers applying for these jobs in the first place? Because theyre awful jobs that pay very little. To fix this youd have to pay a lot more, which would mean increasing prices for these services, which would need government subsidies, which needs more taxes, which needs economic growth to pay for, which we're not getting from our aging shrinking population, which means we need more... you guessed it... immigrant workers! It's also been illegal for a long time to pay immigrant workers less than British workers for the same job, you can argue whether these jobs are low paid because immigrants are willing to do them, or whether British workers arent willing to work for so little, but the end result is the same. And sending home all the EU workers didnt magically increase the wages for British workers like the leave campaign claimed it would. Instead the employers expect British workers to work for those lower wages, and the result is crops rotting in the fields because nobody wants to do that job.
- Well if we have to have immigrants, we want more skilled white European immigrants, theyre ok because they look like us, have the same values and beliefs as us, they integrate and theyre not uneducated brown muslim people!
Well, Brexit fucked that right up for us didnt it?  |
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Easy-X
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| Posted: 20:40 - 01 Jun 2025 Post subject: |
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tl;dr "Britain needs Remigration" 
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| Ste |
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Ste
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| Posted: 21:27 - 01 Jun 2025 Post subject: |
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| Tierbirdy wrote: | [1,153 words] |
That's all well and good but you've not answered my questions.
What level of net migration per year is sustainable? Fifty thousand? One hundred thousand? Two hundred thousand? Five hundred thousand? One million?
How many arrivals by small boat each year is sustainable? Hundreds? Thousands? Tens of thousands?
| Quote: | Why is migration inherently a bad thing? |
It's not. Uncontrolled levels of migration is a bad thing if a country has finite public sector services and resources.
| Quote: | Ok so, small boats, well what else are they supposed to do? |
I don't know, how many small boat arrivals can the UK take each year?
| Quote: | The last gov closed down all the safe legal migration routes. |
Ummmm, the vast majority of migration is done through safe routes. |
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Tierbirdy
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Polarbear
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M.C
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Posted: 12:22 - 03 Jun 2025  Post subject: |
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| Tierbirdy wrote: | No, because nobody could agree on what it meant. How many times did we hear "people knew what they were voting for!" when it was pointed out how badly things were going in the transitional period. And the definition of Brexit changing every five minutes, hard brexit, soft brexit, Norway style deal, Swiss style deal, "Lets go WTO!", no deal brexit. |
When the remainer May was in charge, who did everything she could to drag her heels, and put Britain in a shit negotiating position (by saying we wouldn't leave without a deal). Even the clown Boris managed to renegotiate in apparently impossible timescales.
| Tierbirdy wrote: | Why is migration inherently a bad thing? |
- crime
- violence
- sexual assaults
- terrorism
- housing shortages
- services can't cope
- breakdown of communities
- replacing a population that has been there for thousands of years
| Tierbirdy wrote: | Schroedingers Migrant who is both coming here to take your job, and coming here to be unemployed and live on benefits. |
Err your own data shows that. It also shows that Blair opening the borders to RoW immigration after being elected in '97 was a disaster.
| Tierbirdy wrote: | EEA migrants (post-2000) +£2,610
Non-EEA migrants (post-2000) –£100
UK-born citizens –£1,900 |
You also tried to gloss over from the other study that...
https://www.bikechatforums.com/files/graph.png
...all these low paid migrant workers aren't financially beneficial, and if you're feeling adventurous you can look at studies using real data that I posted earlier: https://unherd.com/newsroom/dutch-study-immigration-costs-state-e17-billion-per-year/
| Tierbirdy wrote: | OBR projections from 2023/4 suggest the UK needs net migration of 250,000–300,000 per year just to:
- demographically replace the British people |
FTFY. These are the same people who told Boris to go full genocide after covid if anyone was wondering.
| Tierbirdy wrote: | From a demographics point of view, everyone knows the UK isnt having enough babies. |
Because they've done everything they can to make it difficult for families & in some cases actively discourage people... Want to fight climate change? Have fewer children
| Tierbirdy wrote: | It'll take generations to raise it in the UK, assuming we do, and until then migration is a vital part of the solution to how do you keep the country running. |
We have a population blip (the Boomers) and turning that into a ponzi scheme is not a solution. You cited an example and Hungary is another where they've managed to reverse birthrates. Finally with automation/AI coming we're going to need less workers not more.
| Tierbirdy wrote: | Labour talk a big game with their planning reforms and house building targets, lets hope it pays off because itll be better for everyone. |
They didn't do it in the 2000s when there was more money, and all these fresh off the boat Polish builders.
Had Blair not opened the borders in '97, then tried to ensure there was enough housing etc.. to accommodate the 2004> EU wave we might be having a different conversation.
| Tierbirdy wrote: | Ok so, small boats, well what else are they supposed to do? |
How about not come here?
| Tierbirdy wrote: | They dont have to, The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) is clear: “there is no requirement under international law for asylum-seekers to seek protection in the first safe country they reach”. |
They aren't sodding refugees then That isn't refugee behaviour, it's benefit tourism as people have been saying.
| Tierbirdy wrote: | And if they already have family in the UK and know a little English why wouldnt they want to come here? |
Right so you're telling us they undertake this perilous journey (mainly crossing Europe by land helped by NGOs but ok), but then the final leg crossing the channel in an overloaded dingy is fine?
| Tierbirdy wrote: | English is a common second or third language and a country they know at least something about. |
You could have fooled me and that something is they know we have a generous welfare system.
| Tierbirdy wrote: | UK-born average citizen
Close to zero or slightly negative, because they use services across full life (childhood + retirement). |
That's a lie, see the graph above.
| Tierbirdy wrote: | So the average immigrant financially contributes a LOT more to the country than you or I do. |
The really don't... 'The unemployment rate rose from 7.2% to 8.0% for people from a minority ethnic background, while it fell from 3.6% to 3.3% for people from a White ethnic background.'
commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06385/
| Tierbirdy wrote: | Well if we have to have immigrants, we want more skilled white European immigrants, theyre ok because they look like us, have the same values and beliefs as us, they integrate and theyre not uneducated brown muslim people!
Well, Brexit fucked that right up for us didnt it? |
Blair got in trouble for making that exact point  |
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Ste
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| Posted: 12:38 - 04 Jun 2025 Post subject: |
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No, pure tin-foil-hattery.
2030~2035 seems to be embossed on so many different globalist agendas. That and the more pessimistic economists believe the Ponzi scheme of government debt will unwind within a decade. Maybe the US first, maybe China. Then you have the general insanity of chasing Net Zero, war in the Pacific, the aftermath of the Ukraine conflict... so many things being kicked down the road.
Civilisation has crawled, walked and is now running across the rope bridge of time...
https://media.tenor.com/04KdcsfRodUAAAAM/conspiracy-charlie-day.gif
...there are rotten planks ahead and certain people are steering right to them.
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