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Sister Sledge
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PostPosted: 08:37 - 31 Oct 2019    Post subject: The National Lottery Reply with quote

Yeah yeah another National Lottery thread but I don't think this one has been covered.

I think it's rigged. (probably last person to realise too)
My reasoning being that when a jackpot happens, it's usually one or two people winning it. Now I'm cr*p with mathematics and calculating odds but surely the fact that so many tickets are bought (this especially applies to rollovers) you can't tell me that just one person picked the winning numbers.

(tin foil hat applied) I personally think that those running the lottery are actively seeking out combinations of numbers which make the lottery roll over or perhaps allow just one winner.
Could it be that footage of balls being drawn are pre-recorded or perhaps CGI/edited to match?

Anyone?
(I rarely place a line on the lottery)
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The Shaggy D.A.
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PostPosted: 08:49 - 31 Oct 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Why would they go through the hassle of rigging it when the odds are massively in their favour anyway?

From £7,206.8m ticket sales year ending March 2019 :-

£4,128.5m paid out
£864.8m lottery duty
£303.9m retailer's commission

Which leaves £1,909.6m for the pigs at the trough. For the year.

[edit] https://www.national-lottery.co.uk/life-changing/where-the-money-goes
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The Artist
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PostPosted: 09:17 - 31 Oct 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Euromillions odds are 1:140mil.

When the jackpot is up high, let's say above 100mil, that means for that one draw, probably only 20-30 mil tickets have been bought maximum. Therefore it is more likely only one winner than multiple.
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mpd72
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PostPosted: 09:51 - 31 Oct 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Shaggy D.A. wrote:
Why would they go through the hassle of rigging it when the odds are massively in their favour anyway?

From £7,206.8 ticket sales year ending March 2019 :-

£4,128.5 paid out
£864.8 lottery duty
£303.9 retailer's commission

[b]Which leaves £1,909.6m for the pigs at the trough. For the year.[/b]

[edit] https://www.national-lottery.co.uk/life-changing/where-the-money-goes


Which is a Canadian teacher's pension scheme. Why our government flogged this is anyone's guess.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 10:28 - 31 Oct 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:
The Shaggy D.A. wrote:
Why would they go through the hassle of rigging it when the odds are massively in their favour anyway?

From £7,206.8 ticket sales year ending March 2019 :-

£4,128.5 paid out
£864.8 lottery duty
£303.9 retailer's commission

[b]Which leaves £1,909.6m for the pigs at the trough. For the year.[/b]

[edit] https://www.national-lottery.co.uk/life-changing/where-the-money-goes


Which is a Canadian teacher's pension scheme. Why our government flogged this is anyone's guess.


If I remember correctly Richard Branson offered to run it as a non profit organisation but Camelot still got the operating rights, Back handers anyone?
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doggone
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PostPosted: 10:34 - 31 Oct 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

An odd thing is every now and then there are dozens sharing the prize, which suggests certain numbers are somehow thought to be more lucky, 7, 42, 12?
I did do it a 2 or 3 times when it first started. Rolling Eyes
But didn't win anything Mad Black Eye
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MarJay
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PostPosted: 10:52 - 31 Oct 2019    Post subject: Re: The National Lottery Reply with quote

Sister Sledge wrote:
Yeah yeah another National Lottery thread but I don't think this one has been covered.

I think it's rigged. (probably last person to realise too)
My reasoning being that when a jackpot happens, it's usually one or two people winning it. Now I'm cr*p with mathematics and calculating odds but surely the fact that so many tickets are bought (this especially applies to rollovers) you can't tell me that just one person picked the winning numbers.

(tin foil hat applied) I personally think that those running the lottery are actively seeking out combinations of numbers which make the lottery roll over or perhaps allow just one winner.
Could it be that footage of balls being drawn are pre-recorded or perhaps CGI/edited to match?

Anyone?
(I rarely place a line on the lottery)


Ok... so if there are enough combinations of numbers for it to be millions to one to win, surely the odds of more than one person happening on that single combination are much greater? The idea is that the spread of the combinations of numbers is high, unless you're playing numbers based on a popular movie or TV show or something?

The chances of two people having the same combination of numbers must be similar to the chances of winning, because the lottery draw is just a randomised way of picking from the same options rather than someone using their brain to do it?

So yeah, it's rigged, but it's rigged by probability and the amount of possible permutations, not by some shadowy organisation CGIing the number pick.

I'm surprised that you could come to the point of working out that part of the probability but not make the leap that the lottery picking process is basically identical to someone picking the numbers in the street, the only differentiation being that people have attachments to certain numbers, and the lottery machines don't?

I really worry about the state of the world when so many people are prepared to jump to shadowy conspiracies about EVERYTHING, even something as naturally against the player without having to fuck about with CGI as the lottery is. Sheesh.
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The Artist
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PostPosted: 11:15 - 31 Oct 2019    Post subject: Re: The National Lottery Reply with quote

MarJay wrote:

Ok... so if there are enough combinations of numbers for it to be millions to one to win, surely the odds of more than one person happening on that single combination are much greater? The idea is that the spread of the combinations of numbers is high, unless you're playing numbers based on a popular movie or TV show or something?

The chances of two people having the same combination of numbers must be similar to the chances of winning, because the lottery draw is just a randomised way of picking from the same options rather than someone using their brain to do it?

So yeah, it's rigged, but it's rigged by probability and the amount of possible permutations, not by some shadowy organisation CGIing the number pick.

I'm surprised that you could come to the point of working out that part of the probability but not make the leap that the lottery picking process is basically identical to someone picking the numbers in the street, the only differentiation being that people have attachments to certain numbers, and the lottery machines don't?

I really worry about the state of the world when so many people are prepared to jump to shadowy conspiracies about EVERYTHING, even something as naturally against the player without having to fuck about with CGI as the lottery is. Sheesh.


People love a conspiracy. It only took 4 posts in this thread before we got some government level conspiracy theory.
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MarJay
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PostPosted: 11:32 - 31 Oct 2019    Post subject: Re: The National Lottery Reply with quote

The Artist wrote:
People love a conspiracy. It only took 4 posts in this thread before we got some government level conspiracy theory.


The first post claimed a conspiracy on the part of Camelot or whoever runs it to fake the lottery pick so that they only pick out sets of numbers that one person has picked.

Even if the maths bore it out (which it doesn't) what would they gain from doing that? Sheesh
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jnw010
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PostPosted: 13:11 - 31 Oct 2019    Post subject: Re: The National Lottery Reply with quote

MarJay wrote:
The Artist wrote:
People love a conspiracy. It only took 4 posts in this thread .


The first post claimed a conspiracy


Agree, and he's quoted the eighth post as his reference. Neutral
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The Artist
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PostPosted: 15:37 - 31 Oct 2019    Post subject: Re: The National Lottery Reply with quote

MarJay wrote:
The Artist wrote:
People love a conspiracy. It only took 4 posts in this thread before we got some government level conspiracy theory.


The first post claimed a conspiracy on the part of Camelot or whoever runs it to fake the lottery pick so that they only pick out sets of numbers that one person has picked.

Even if the maths bore it out (which it doesn't) what would they gain from doing that? Sheesh


Yeah but the 4th post is government level conspiracy.

The 1st is just regular old capitalism conspiracy.
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MarJay
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PostPosted: 16:05 - 31 Oct 2019    Post subject: Re: The National Lottery Reply with quote

The Artist wrote:

Yeah but the 4th post is government level conspiracy.

The 1st is just regular old capitalism conspiracy.


That's MPD, we just ignore him now.
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Ste
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PostPosted: 16:36 - 31 Oct 2019    Post subject: Re: The National Lottery Reply with quote

Sister Sledge wrote:
you can't tell me that just one person picked the winning numbers.

Why not?

Here are some statistics which everyone can use to prove and disprove lottery conspiracies. Thumbs Up
https://www.lottery.co.uk/lotto/statistics
https://www.lottoland.co.uk/magazine/why-you-should-avoid-the-most-popular-lottery-numbers.html
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mpd72
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PostPosted: 17:01 - 31 Oct 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:


If I remember correctly Richard Branson offered to run it as a non profit organisation but Camelot still got the operating rights, Back handers anyone?


I believe once the MP's involved had received their dividends from Camelot, the government sold it to a Canadian Teachers pension trust fund.
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mpd72
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PostPosted: 17:05 - 31 Oct 2019    Post subject: Re: The National Lottery Reply with quote

The Artist wrote:


People love a conspiracy. It only took 4 posts in this thread before we got some government level conspiracy theory.


Or what those of us with half a brain like to call... the truth.

How is my post pointing out the truth a conspiracy? Rolling Eyes

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8588321.stm

Quote:
National Lottery operator Camelot has been sold to a Canadian teachers' pension fund for £389m.

The company, currently owned by a consortium that includes Cadbury, has been running the UK's National Lottery since it began in 1994.

The sale will be looked at by the regulator, the National Lottery Commission.

One of the factors in its decision will be whether or not the national interest will be served by the sale.

Camelot's proposed buyer, the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan - known simply as Teachers' - runs the pension fund for more than a quarter of a million Canadian teachers.

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mpd72
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PostPosted: 17:09 - 31 Oct 2019    Post subject: Re: The National Lottery Reply with quote

The Artist wrote:

Yeah but the 4th post is government level conspiracy.
.


Nope. It's just me telling you who bought Camelot.

Carry on though. I imagine you tying your shoelaces is also some sort of "conspiracy" to you.
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mpd72
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PostPosted: 17:09 - 31 Oct 2019    Post subject: Re: The National Lottery Reply with quote

MarJay wrote:


That's MPD, we just ignore him now.


Yeah, I mean who needs fact eh? Rolling Eyes
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Sister Sledge
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PostPosted: 19:10 - 31 Oct 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sheesh!

Ah but when the National Lottery first started I'm sure we were seeing groups of different people sharing a jackpot? Not workers groups - individuals sharing a top prize?
(might be wrong I don't know where to find that info out)

Anyway, some people are sh*t at mathematics - me included and I did say so at the start.
Must admit to not realising that some folk will all pick number 7 for example which will obviously sway things. Those early years and jackpots though - I'm sure they were multi-shared.
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MarJay
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PostPosted: 19:34 - 31 Oct 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sister Sledge wrote:
Sheesh!

Ah but when the National Lottery first started I'm sure we were seeing groups of different people sharing a jackpot? Not workers groups - individuals sharing a top prize?
(might be wrong I don't know where to find that info out)

Anyway, some people are sh*t at mathematics - me included and I did say so at the start.
Must admit to not realising that some folk will all pick number 7 for example which will obviously sway things. Those early years and jackpots though - I'm sure they were multi-shared.


Some were, but there was a big fad for syndicates in the early days. Also they added a tonne more numbers in the last year or so, about the time they had some rich idiots advertising the Lottery on TV. This multiplied the possible permutations by a factor of ten, and made it much more of a rip off in my opinion.
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jnw010
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PostPosted: 10:35 - 01 Nov 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

It does seem like the jackpots have grown in size to more sensationalist levels while the number of winners has diminished.
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Ste
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PostPosted: 10:54 - 01 Nov 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

jnw010 wrote:
It does seem like the jackpots have grown in size to more sensationalist levels while the number of winners has diminished.

Yup, in 2015 they added 10 more balls to the draw.

"As of October the number of balls in the bucket will increase from 49 to 59. The lottery website cheerily sells it as a new feature: “more numbers to choose from”. The reality is there are now more numbers you’re not going to choose. The odds have become much worse. As a UK citizen, it’ll be more likely that Prince Charles is your dad than you choosing winning lottery numbers.

Up until now, to win the jackpot you had to match six balls out of 49, which has a probability of one in 13,983,816. A reasonably straightforward calculation. From October, matching six balls from 59 increases the odds to one in 45,057,474, an increase of 3.2 times. Sort of.

For us number nerds, the new rules are a gift because the probabilities have become more interesting. As well as increasing the number of balls, Camelot have also changed how the game works in two fundamental ways. First, while there are still the same smaller prizes for matching five, four and three balls, they have also added a new prize if you match exactly two. You win another lottery ticket. Which does not feel like a great prize. Is being allowed to try and win the same prizes again next time count as a prize in its own right?

Mathematically, it means that the probabilities are not quite as clear-cut. I calculated that the odds of matching only two numbers in a draw is one in 10.258, which means you have a 9.748% chance of playing again. This second chance comes in the form of a lucky dip ticket: six numbers picked at random.

I spoke to the press office at Camelot and confirmed that it is possible to then match two numbers on your lucky dip and win a third ticket, and so on. Technically, you could buy one ticket and keep winning free tickets for the rest of your life. But that is exceedingly unlikely, even by lottery standards.

This means the new odds of winning the jackpot of “one in 45,057,474” is actually incorrect. Because there is a 9.748% chance you’ll get a second go; a 0.9503% chance you’ll get three goes; 0.09264% four goes; 0.009031% five and so on. We can mathematically roll up all these vanishingly small probabilities and calculate the new odds of winning the jackpot on a single initial ticket purchased: one in 40,665,099. Only 2.9 times worse than before."

Extra 10 balls sauce: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/17/national-lottery-balls-bigger-prizes
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Hetzer
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PostPosted: 20:06 - 01 Nov 2019    Post subject: Re: The National Lottery Reply with quote

MarJay wrote:
The Artist wrote:
People love a conspiracy. It only took 4 posts in this thread before we got some government level conspiracy theory.


The first post claimed a conspiracy on the part of Camelot or whoever runs it to fake the lottery pick so that they only pick out sets of numbers that one person has picked.

Even if the maths bore it out (which it doesn't) what would they gain from doing that? Sheesh


They would gain the ticket-selling perception that when a person wins, he wins massive. Far less people would buy tickets if lots were winning the jackpot each week (splitting the take considerably).

Not that I believe it's rigged. The odds against any number winning the euro is around 240 million to one. The UK one, since they increased the numbers, isn't far off that either. You've got more chance of being hit by lightening ten times in one day (I read somewhere). Total waste of money, for mugs. I used to be one but stopped when they upped the ticket price from £1.
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steve the grease
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PostPosted: 21:04 - 01 Nov 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

If there is 59 numbers, then factorial 59 comes into it somewhere.
Thats 1x2x3x4x keep goingx58x59. so thats
1.3868312e^80 or 1.3 with 80 0's after it.
Whilst I know someone wins every week I think that you are more likely to be hit on the head by a bit of the international space station that has fallen off, so I'll hang on to my money thanks.
numbers 1-31 are chosen more often - birthdays
numbers 1-12 also and probably 19 , birth months and years.
who knows....
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Ste
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PostPosted: 21:08 - 01 Nov 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's one in 40,665,099. Wink

The jackpot isn't won every week.
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 13:58 - 04 Nov 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the maths goes, the odds of picking 6 numbers from 59 with the order not mattering
=59! / (53! * 6!)

With ! denoting factorial, i.e. 6*5*4*3*2*1

For some reason 0! = 1 and I never found out why.
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