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jjdugen |
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 jjdugen World Chat Champion

Joined: 03 Jun 2011 Karma :   
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 Posted: 09:27 - 30 Sep 2016 Post subject: Ageism |
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I'm getting the taste for this politics thing.
I'm approaching 70. (Probably ride my blade further and faster than most half my age). A product of the 'socialist' movement post ww2, good health, food, housing, education, etc. So I am a living testimony to the aims of the Atlee government.
Now it would appear that we baby boomers are living too long and there are too many of us.
There is a bulge of about 25 million people aged late 50's to 80's. Considerably less aged 25 -50. (Think of a wineglass, us as the bowl, with a long thin stem and a slightly larger base of 1 - 20year olds). Yes, we do seem to have had the best of things and have houses and pensions and are generally living reasonably well. As we get into senility, more of us will need a bit of looking after.
BUT!. Even though we might be living 'longer', we are not immortal. All the discourse on how we are straining the NHS, inflating the housing market etc ALL overlook one vital element of the argument. Within the next ten, maybe fifteen years, the vast majority of 'us' will be gone. Dead that is.
All the accumulated wealth and property will be redistributed. The jobs we hold will be freed. The pressure of housing and hospitals will diminish or even be eradicated.
Those of you in your 20's and early 30's will suddenly inherit a considerably emptier country. If you want a growth industry to invest in, get a funeral parlour!
Before you shout, 'immigrants' I would look a the demographics going forward. Leave us wrinklys alone, you will inherit all we have managed to accrue so stop all this fear mongering and jealous winging! ____________________ The CBR900RR has been sold. Aprilia Falco worms its way into my heart.
Try Soi 23 on Amazon for a good read.... Self promotion? Moi? |
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Itchy |
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 Itchy Super Spammer

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Polarbear |
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 Polarbear Super Spammer

Joined: 24 Feb 2007 Karma :  
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Ste |
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 Ste Not Work Safe

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M.C |
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 M.C Super Spammer
Joined: 29 Sep 2015 Karma :    
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 Posted: 10:29 - 30 Sep 2016 Post subject: |
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By the time you lot are dead you would have bankrupted the NHS and therefore the country  |
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Kickstart |
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 Kickstart The Oracle

Joined: 04 Feb 2002 Karma :     
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Rogerborg |
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 Rogerborg nimbA

Joined: 26 Oct 2010 Karma :    
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 Posted: 10:43 - 30 Sep 2016 Post subject: |
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Polarbear wrote: | We are probably the last generation that will actually have enough money to begin to enjoy retirement. |
Depends which generation you mean. I'm mid 40s, will have my mortgage paid off in the next 4 years (barring Krautbank triggering a global collapse), and have an unusually generous pension pot building up.
But there's no way I'll ever be able to retire while I'm still able to work. Not a chance in hell. Private sector annuities will be worth nothing unless you take them at 75 or 80, and a pittance even then, as providers figure that you might cling on to 90 or triple digits. Pension black holes including annuity provision are going to be the big economic issue of the next half century.
But it's not economics, its demographics. Promises-promises to the contrary, the Baby Boomers are not going to die off. They're just going to get older and sicker and more crotchety, and (rightly) cling on to their homes while sucking in more and more healthcare resources. Bizarre econopropaganda aside, pure consumers are not a benefit to an economy, and more than running around smashing windows is.
tl;dr version - if we keep going as we're going, then eventually everybody in the country will be in the business of wiping arses, or having their arse wiped.
Culling the old Legalising euthanasia is the only actual solution. The sooner and harder we grasp that nettle, the less painful it will be. ____________________ Biking is 1/20th as dangerous as horse riding.
GONE: HN125-8, LF-250B, GPz 305, GPZ 500S, Burgman 400 // RIDING: F650GS (800 twin), Royal Enfield Bullet Electra 500 AVL, Ninja 250R because racebike |
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jjdugen |
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 jjdugen World Chat Champion

Joined: 03 Jun 2011 Karma :   
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 Posted: 11:00 - 30 Sep 2016 Post subject: |
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'That's IF you have anything to inherit other than debts. 16 million people don't have a pot to pish in in the UK.'
I think you will find that the overwhelming debt of the population lies with the younger elements. Remember that the astronomical mortgages now demanded form a large part of that debt.
If the older gen are going on Saga holidays, they are not getting them on tick, its from their savings. (Unlike the youngsters who put everything straight onto their cards).
So, we all die off, in increasing numbers from now on. (You think a lot about death as you get to your allotted three score and ten). That's 25 million people gone. Lets say 15 million properties, as I see it, just wait a few years and you can have your pick. Yes, values will decrease, tough on those who saluted the flag and got themselves hitched to the banks for life. But, national debt will decrease rapidly.
All the jobs held down by the 50 - 68 year olds will become vacant, (Some 10 million BTW) as long as you have the skills to fill them.
Yes, the NHS will bear the burden, but end of life care is considerably cheaper than actual operations. And when we are gone, there will be no need for the level of hospital services we need right now.
No, on balance, you will inherit a country designed for 70 million people, but with an actual population of around 40 - 45 mill. Seems to me you are on a winner. ____________________ The CBR900RR has been sold. Aprilia Falco worms its way into my heart.
Try Soi 23 on Amazon for a good read.... Self promotion? Moi? |
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Ste |
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 Ste Not Work Safe

Joined: 01 Sep 2002 Karma :    
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Rogerborg |
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 Rogerborg nimbA

Joined: 26 Oct 2010 Karma :    
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Tracey Suntan-King |
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 Tracey Suntan-King World Chat Champion

Joined: 10 Nov 2012 Karma :   
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 Posted: 12:03 - 30 Sep 2016 Post subject: |
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Quote: | Now it would appear that we baby boomers are living too long and there are too many of us. |
Google tells me that Sid and I qualify as baby boomers being born before 1964.
The debate about how BBs have it all has so far overlooked two salient facts. Our respective first mortgages were based on the same salary multiples that are used now. Mine was a 100% mortgage (they still exist) and we both remember paying mortgage interest at 14%. There was no money left over after paying your mortgage. Nothing for Sky TV, holidays or any form of luxury unless you count travelling to work to pay the effing mortgage a luxury. Oh yes and inflation was rampant, 9.5% in 1990. At least nowadays interest rates are very low and unlikely to rise beyond 4% in anyone's imagination, same with inflation, almost zero.
Any gains we've made from property have been earned, there was nothing easy or lucky about it.
Public sector pensions were excellent, they still are. Private pensions schemes were the preserve of senior employees, so many BBs have no pension at all unless they worked in the public sector. At least nowadays pretty well everyone will end up with a pension of some sort unless they are daft enough to opt out. Your pension won't grow like ours did, but that is offset by lower costs of borrowing and historically low inflation rates.
TL:DR Baby boomers didn't have it easy, it was a jam tomorrow scenario. Younger people now have a jam today expectation so there's none left for tomorrow.  ____________________ Whether you think you can, or think you can't, you're probably right |
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Derivative |
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 Derivative World Chat Champion
Joined: 03 Aug 2010 Karma :   
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Itchy |
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 Itchy Super Spammer

Joined: 07 Apr 2005 Karma :     
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 Posted: 13:23 - 30 Sep 2016 Post subject: |
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Tracey Suntan-King wrote: | Our respective first mortgages were based on the same salary multiples that are used now. Mine was a 100% mortgage (they still exist) and we both remember paying mortgage interest at 14%. There was no money left over after paying your mortgage. Nothing for Sky TV, holidays or any form of luxury unless you count travelling to work to pay the effing mortgage a luxury. Oh yes and inflation was rampant, 9.5% in 1990.]At least nowadays interest rates are very low and unlikely to rise beyond 4% in anyone's imagination, same with inflation, almost zero. |
Nope
Inflation is what gave you a massive advantage. The supply and demand function of the labour market also worked in your favour in regards to inflation.
Lets work this out.
In 1969 average wages were £20 a week ~ £1040PA
In 1970 average wages were £24 a week ~ £1248PA
In 1971 average wages were £28 a week ~ £1456PA
By 1975 it was £2,496
By 1980 it was £5,720
Now we compare it to this: (taken from nationwide)
House prices:
1969 £4,145
1970 £4,378
1971 £4,741
1975 £10,388
1980 £22,677
So if you take out a mortgage inflation essentially erases the debt as your wages increase along with inflation. A bloke who bought his house in 1969 in as little as 3-4 years his mortgage was reduced to a much smaller proportion of his income. So in 1975 house costs 400% of your yearly wage. You keep the same house in 5 years time you're total debt is only 200% of your total yearly wage. Yes there is interest but we're ignoring it for simplicity.
These inflationary events erased most of your debt and gave you a huge advantage.
Companies couldn't outsource they couldn't go overseas. So they had to pony up or go out of business. Todays wage rises don't work as companies can outsource they can automate if they choose to do so. I'm pretty sure most don't get 20-25% wage increases pretty much every year. So the same effect doesn't happen.
The 1980s also heralded the end of 3.5 your salary? No can you fog up a mirror! Here's as much money as you want!! Type lending.
In the most extreme case hyperinflation the debtors win. Lets say I owe 3 million quid. Yet I make say £60K a year. This is a bad situation. Hyperinflation kicks in and suddenly I'm being paid £500K a day. The 3 million quid debt suddenly becomes trivial. Though of course if this happened there would be much bigger problems to worry about. ____________________ Spain 2008France 2007Big one 2009 We all die. The goal isn't to live forever, the goal is to create something that will. In the end, your life will flash before your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching. |
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Derivative |
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 Derivative World Chat Champion
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M.C |
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 M.C Super Spammer
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Derivative |
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 Derivative World Chat Champion
Joined: 03 Aug 2010 Karma :   
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 Posted: 14:00 - 30 Sep 2016 Post subject: |
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I just think it's completely different in a way that isn't being appreciated.
'Sacrifice' is kind of a ... category error? It describes what happens if you're in the right group.
Yes, if you're on the borderline, you'll have to sacrifice - the point is that the border used to be at, say, 1 full time earner, later 2 full time earners, is now at 2 full time professional earners quite far into their career, and the employment market has shifted such that reaching that state is more difficult than it was before.
I don't think anyone is bothered by scrimping a bit, it's more achieving the required income, and specifically the fact that while individuals might be able to do it if they focus hard, the overall picture is one of far fewer people getting on. |
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Derivative |
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 Derivative World Chat Champion
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 Posted: 14:24 - 30 Sep 2016 Post subject: |
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Oh, there's also stuff like student loans.
Back in the day it wasn't really required. 10% or so of the population got them, the ones that did got them free but we're talking about an elite here anyway.
Nowadays it's kind of standard for any job that isn't manual. The first step on the ladder in most careers is a graduate scheme.
So you have people taking three year courses in dog grooming to go and apply as an accountant.
Now, even if they do get the big money, they've got an added 9% marginal tax rate.
Again, not an absolute disaster, but another thing that pushes the boundary for affordability further up.
Of my close friends, at the moment extrapolating I'm the only one that has a chance of paying it off pre 35. Everyone else will basically be paying 9% above 17K forever. The 9K fees lot?
I mean, basically, it's a statistical problem. One can go self-employed, start a business, become a millionaire, buy three flats in Central London and it's a win. But the general picture isn't made up of these few success stories, it's made up of Sports Direct and Tesco and graduate salaries of 20K. |
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Suntan Sid |
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 Suntan Sid World Chat Champion

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Kickstart |
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 Kickstart The Oracle

Joined: 04 Feb 2002 Karma :     
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M.C |
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 M.C Super Spammer
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Rogerborg |
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 Rogerborg nimbA

Joined: 26 Oct 2010 Karma :    
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 Posted: 17:57 - 30 Sep 2016 Post subject: |
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In principle, house prices will drop as the Boomers die off and their mansions come on the market, or their offsprings' newly surplus homes.
In practice, all of the houses that come up on my father's 4-big-bed-detached estate are immediately snapped up by young asian families bearing sacks of cash.
Sometimes literally cash. His new next door neighbours are lovely young couple, very charming, wife looks about 14. They put up a dozen CCTV cameras, then vanished. Every few weeks, a convoy of pyjama wearing relatives turn up in Mercs and unloads stacks of boxes, then for the next few days there's a swarm of nedmobiles and scootays turning up all hours of the day and night.
Mid lever dealers, of course, but ever so polite when they're at home, no trouble at all. ____________________ Biking is 1/20th as dangerous as horse riding.
GONE: HN125-8, LF-250B, GPz 305, GPZ 500S, Burgman 400 // RIDING: F650GS (800 twin), Royal Enfield Bullet Electra 500 AVL, Ninja 250R because racebike |
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Kickstart |
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 Kickstart The Oracle

Joined: 04 Feb 2002 Karma :     
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Derivative |
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 Derivative World Chat Champion
Joined: 03 Aug 2010 Karma :   
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 Posted: 20:58 - 30 Sep 2016 Post subject: |
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I think the inheritance argument is flawed mostly because it's based on some abstract concept of fairness, rather than the fact that housing is often a means to an end.
I think it makes sense for city workers to live nearby and for older folk that pop in every now and then for culture to live further out.
I see the prevalence of council estates in Central London in much the same way. The idea was presumably to mix rich and poor and foster community, but what it's turned into is mixing the extremely rich with the extremely poor, people that can't really understand each other at all.
So, yeah, it's not really based on greed, but rather what's best for the country, the economy, general happiness, etc. You want the productive workforce to actually feel like they're getting a good deal, rather than just slaving away until they're 50 at which point they'll inherit the house and it won't have mattered much what they did before. |
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Kawasaki Jimbo |
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 Kawasaki Jimbo World Chat Champion

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Kickstart |
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 Kickstart The Oracle

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Old Thread Alert!
The last post was made 8 years, 325 days ago. Instead of replying here, would creating a new thread be more useful? |
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