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Kickstart
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PostPosted: 11:47 - 06 Nov 2008    Post subject: Interest rates down Reply with quote

Hi

Interest rates have gone down by 1.5% points to 3%. That is one hell of a drop.

And personally not certain it is a good thing. Might help in the short term but lousy in the long term unless something can be done to control those things whose price is mainly dependent on interest paid rather than the actual price (eg, houses). At best it is papering over the cracks.

All the best

Keith
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Wafer_Thin_Ham
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PostPosted: 12:02 - 06 Nov 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

Aye, saw that earlier, it is one hell of a drop, although I've seen that some economists have been predicting 0% base rate next year. Shocked
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Nufkamp
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PostPosted: 12:09 - 06 Nov 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

And how much of this 1.5% will filter through to mortgage payers I wonder? 1/2% if we're lucky.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 13:03 - 06 Nov 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

Its a (feeble) attempt to stop deflation...

Everyone is becoming more and more fearful. So everyone stops spending and starts saving/paying down debts. But because consumer spending is 70% of the UK economy, when people stop spending the economy dives further and further*. So people become even more fearful, and therefore spend even less and save even more.


*less spending means job cuts, which means less tax receipts , which means higher taxes.

Beats hyperinflation though , but then again I benefit from deflation more than I do hyperinflation.

Though biflation may occur, ie inflation in vital commodities yet deflation in things that need leverage to sell , ie cars / bikes etc..

In effect the government has just given a heroin addict some more heroin and told them you can come off any time you like... sort of..
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Robby
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PostPosted: 20:44 - 06 Nov 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

Does this mean house prices will come down a bit more?

I'd like them to. My buy price is £90k, £100k at a push. Currently 1 bed flats anywhere near London are at around £110-120k.
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WildGoose
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PostPosted: 21:10 - 06 Nov 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

Can banks be forced to pass this on, or is it all up to them?

Yes Gordon has suggested they pass it on, but sounds to me like they do what the hell they like. Get bailed out, from our pockets, then continue to shaft us with the mortgage repayments.

Pretty fucking sick of all the excuses, look how quick prices get chucked up out of proportion. Then when they are due to fall again, you get some crap about "oooh *sucks teeth* it doesn't work like that". Rolling Eyes

Was rather excited, as my fixed rate is up soon, a low base rate should mean an ability for us to secure another fixed, at a rate equivalent to current or below. A move to the variable rate (currently approx 2.5% above our fixed) would really hurt. Nevermind the fact that I doubt I would ever sleep if I was on a variable rate.
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owdamer
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PostPosted: 21:19 - 06 Nov 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

robby wrote:
Does this mean house prices will come down a bit more?

I'd like them to. My buy price is £90k, £100k at a push. Currently 1 bed flats anywhere near London are at around £110-120k.


They're reporting in our local rag that house prices in Oldham are still rising, although thats because the prices were uite low to begin with. Houses are not selling though as first time buyers can't get mortgages....
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Kickstart
The Oracle



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PostPosted: 22:14 - 06 Nov 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

robby wrote:
Does this mean house prices will come down a bit more?


If it has the effect they want then likely push up the prices up.

All the best

Keith
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 22:32 - 06 Nov 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

robby wrote:
Does this mean house prices will come down a bit more?

I'd like them to. My buy price is £90k, £100k at a push. Currently 1 bed flats anywhere near London are at around £110-120k.



Yes , because as said people will wait rather than buy now on the prospect that it will be cheaper (to the tune of 2% a month and remember every £1 you save is £3 you don't have to pay back) ....

Combined with tigher borrowing criteria (ie unemployed types and liar loans) means banks are not lending out as much..

Combined with the tranche of unemployment comming (conservative predictions are 5million) , house prices will utterly tank, as there will be many prudent types who a change of circumstance will force them to sell - ie distressed sellers..

But one thing beware of false bottoms, as said in the 1930s crash more money was lost on people falsely thinking it had hit bottom than in the initial crash..

Also as the market overshot on the way up , it WILL over shoot on the way down...


The thing is the UK is the WORST country in the developed world in terms of debt, and thus sure you can buy a house cheap (35% falls minimum now some people are predicting 75%+ falls infact some houses have fallen that far) but is it going to be worth sticking around?.


And Kickstart,

No way Jose, best outcome is we get Japaned, ie Japan had close to 0% interest rates for a VERY long time, 0% mortgages however were not avalible to the public though........ ALL bubbles pop , and this one has, some economists are predicting house price recovery some time near 2023 which is fair, as some say 2010/12 , but give no reasons as to why this is the case.


And before you say it the £ tanking is no good, since we have a serious trade deficit...

Raw materials are also imported ,thus nullifying your effect.

In deflation even though the £ has lost 26% of its value , may improve exports but in a deflation demand is destroyed ie oil price falling due to lower demand...

check out this

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing-and-markets/article.html?in_article_id=456069&in_page_id=3

Volvo's truck sales tank 99.7% , last year sold about 44000 units this time this year sold 115.... so sure your exports might get cheaper by 26% , but if your sales decreases by 99.7% you are in a MUCH worse situation.

In your scenario with the Euro tanking against the US , they should have sold MORE units, but sold less , thus your arguement that tanking currency is a good thing doesn't ring true as it does not consider demand destruction..


Still reckon the £ falling is a good thing?
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Last edited by Itchy on 22:36 - 06 Nov 2008; edited 1 time in total
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Robby
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PostPosted: 22:35 - 06 Nov 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

So if I take the middle line between Itchy and Keith, I should wait a year or two and have a tinfoil hat on standby.

Oh and hold onto my nice, safe government job.
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Kickstart
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PostPosted: 22:40 - 06 Nov 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:
And Kickstart,

No way Jose, best outcome is we get Japaned, ie Japan had close to 0% interest rates for a VERY long time, 0% mortgages however were not avalible to the public though........ ALL bubbles pop , and this one has, some economists are predicting house price recovery some time near 2023 which is fair, as some say 2010/12 , but give no reasons as to why this is the case.


Err, try reading what I wrote.

If it has the effect they want then likely push up the prices up.

Itchy wrote:
And before you say it the £ tanking is no good, since we have a serious trade deficit...

Raw materials are also imported ,thus nullifying your effect.


Raw material imports are totally irrelevant to effect of a low pound on the price of final products lowering due to the low pound.

All the best

Keith
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Kickstart
The Oracle



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PostPosted: 22:49 - 06 Nov 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

robby wrote:
So if I take the middle line between Itchy and Keith, I should wait a year or two and have a tinfoil hat on standby.


Wait for the prices to finish dropping (or close to it). Personally I suspect they will continue to drop for a bit longer. Low interest rates would conventionally push prices higher. Trouble is that houses were hideously over priced, and how far they drop is largely down to how long it takes people to have confidence in them not dropping any further.

On the other hand there are those who think that all is rosey and the housing market will pick up rapidly. Personally I think they are as far out as the pessimistic end Itchys of Itchys predictions.

All the best

Keith
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