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 colin1 Captain Safety
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 Posted: 17:41 - 12 Jan 2012 Post subject: |
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I think the future lies in collaborations between hi-tech new world countries and the cheap labour of low tech countries.
One example being triumph building it's bikes in thailand now, so you get british engineering but costs kept low by building somewhere cheap.
Tata of india have bought jaguar so they get access to top end engineering which they will filter down into their indian brands.
China will do something similar, They will buy an underperforming japanese brand, pump money into it, and syphon off the hi-tech engineering to make similar at home.
It will be a long time before china can produce an equivalent of an r6, but then triumph bided there time with retro models for quite a while before, they put their toe in the water with the tt600 and 675 to go up against the japanese.
So China can start with cheap bikes for low income countries and learners here, but slowly they will move into big bike commuters.
I reckon in ten years if you get a parallel twin 500 it would be silly not to get a chinese bike, and in 20 years, for a weekend toy, you will consider the chinese offerings as credible. ____________________ colin1 is officially faster than god |
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 pepperami Super Spammer

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 Posted: 17:54 - 12 Jan 2012 Post subject: |
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Come back MZ, Jawa, & CZ all is forgiven  ____________________ I am the sum total of my own existence, what went before makes me who I am now! |
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 bLiXeY Scooby Slapper

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 Posted: 18:03 - 12 Jan 2012 Post subject: Re: Will Chinese Bikes ever be the new Jap Bikes? |
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| DonnyBrago wrote: |
This comes up fairly frequently.
The TLDR is:
Japanese bikes were INCORRECTLY considered crap whilst they were actually rather innovative and technologically advanced. Chinese bikes are CORRECTLY considered crap, they are clones of old japanese designs made on the cheap with no innovation, just copies with various degrees of success.
The bikes will get better (or cheaper), but I doubt they will become innovative any time soon. |
I thought this at first, and it may be 'true', but the problem is, you can only say Japanese bikes were incorrectly considered 'crap' in hindsight.
People thought they were crap because they used mass production techniques (and how can anything mass produced be as good as something 'hand crafted' was probably the common line). It may be possible that Japanese mass production techniques (presumably developed during the war for ordnance) were indeed crap and caused component faults etc. Or it could have just been xenophobia as we'd recently been at war!
Now China's current industrial model of cloning vehicles using cheaper materials could, arguably, be comparative to the Japs mass production model that elicited similar negative responses at the time .
So who is to say that in 50 years, China's industrial production model will not be seen in a similar light to Japan's? But it may not be 'innovation' that they are praised for, but some other quality?
Also I'd be very interested to learn if China produces vehicles for it's own market, and not for export.
It's not that I personally think there is any current comparison with each respective countries vehicle manufacturing industry btw...but I do think that it's not as straightforward a question as people may think it.
Which is why I asked it here!!  |
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| Teflon-Mike |
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 Teflon-Mike tl;dr

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 Posted: 18:07 - 12 Jan 2012 Post subject: Re: Will Chinese Bikes ever be the new Jap Bikes? |
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| DonnyBrago wrote: | This comes up fairly frequently.The TLDR is:
Japanese bikes were INCORRECTLY considered crap whilst they were actually rather innovative and technologically advanced. Chinese bikes are CORRECTLY considered crap, they are clones of old japanese designs made on the cheap with no innovation, just copies with various degrees of success.
The bikes will get better (or cheaper), but I doubt they will become innovative any time soon. |
There is 'quirk' of time & place with the Japanese bikes of the 70's & 80's.
In the pioneering era of the internal combustion engine; the engines did not make very much power; and a 'motorcycle' being a light weight structure was much more readily motorised than a cart; and certainly more cheaply motorised. Hence in the early years an awful lot of upstart motorcycle makers, and an awful lot of people buying motorcycles becouse it was the ONLY form of motorised transport they could afford.
In the USA, Henry Ford pioneered mass manufacturing techniques and offered the 'Cheap' Ford Model T-Car, whioch within the span of barely a decade, effectively 'killed' the US Domestic motorcycle industry; ecconomies of scale closing the gap in price and making cars the more atractive mode of utiliterian personal transport. In the affluence of post war USA, the motorcycle was adopted by the less afluent youth, and became a 'life style' icon or a piece of leisure equipment.
In Europe and the rest of the world; the motorcycle remained an ecconomic expedience much longer; but with growing consumerism and general affluence has followed the american model.
The start of the Japanese domination of the motorcycle market, co-incided with the start of this shift in the better developed European countries, and was serendipitously aided by the collapse of the BSA conclomerate; in 1972, which produced, by $ value half of the UK Industries motorcycles, the British Industry the 'incumbant' producing aproxiumately half of teh WORLDS motorcycle's...
That colapse provided a 'void' in the market for the Japanese, and others to exploit, and they were the quickest and most agressive to do so.
Rightly or wrongly, the British 'incumbants' had been critasised for becoming stagnated in thier design, showing little or no innovation in new models, and doing little to improve design or build quality, and in the face of competition 'retreating' from the 'bread and butter' utiliterian commuter market to concentrate on making larger displacement 'aspirational' motorcycles significantly more for the enthusiast and leisure market.
The Japanese, were making in roads into the larger displacement market, before the British Industry colapse, and continued to do so after, and were consequently forced to be 'inovative', as there were no longer an 'incumbant' machines for them to emulate, and thier inovation, deturmined to put the technology they aquired through motorcycle-sport to the road for commercial advantage, saw the performance of 'production' motorcycles quickluy outstrip that of anything previousely offered.
The Chinese have done little but make low cost, low quality copies of 'old' Japanese commuter machines, significantly for the 'utiliterian' transport market; and the machines WE have seen have significantly been those made for third world asian countries.
It is a curiocity that they have NOT, in over a decade of offering such machines significantly done anything to improve build quality...
Principles of Quality Control, that the Japanese have promoted for the last thirty years have significantly said that it costs as much to make a shit product as it does a good one; and 'excuse' that thier offerings are only 'cheap' by dint of bowl of rice a day labour rates, doesn't explain WHY, given the Japanese influence they have not utilised that low labour rate to advantage to employ better quality control, and hence make thier products as 'good' and fit for purpose as the Japanese originals....
End of the day, we know they CAN becouse they are making Japanese branded bikes in Joint Venture... Yamaha YBR being case in point......
What is MORE intreguing to me; is that while the Japanese were incredibly inovative throughout the 1980's...... since then, they are probably even MORE guilty of the critasisms leveled against the British Incumbants of forty years ago...
The British makers were accused of 'retreating' into the more lucrative 'Big-Bike' market..... Japanese have almost abandoned making anything under 600cc!
The British makers were accused of putting thier 'faith' in the air-cooled, push rod parallel twin.... we used to call the across the frame 'four' of the late 70's and early 80's the UJM or 'Universal Japanese Motorcycle'... yet incredibly there was more design diversity amongst those few bikes than there is between contemprary Japanese offerings... significantly all, fuel injected, accross the frame water cooled 'four's with Double overhead Cam-Shafts and 4valves per cylinder, and even LESS diversity in thier construction, frames suspension and cycle parts......
Learning the lessons of history.... its possible that some-one COULD do unto the Japanese what the Japanese did unto the BRit-Bikes.... though the Japs didn't do the BRit-Bike to death...
Brit Bike industry went down due to lots and lots of compounding factors; The BSA Group's colapse being the most hard hitting, and THAT not entirely due to the motorcycle business; BSA had over stretched itself in the 1960's 'Mergers' race.... something we have seen happen to other companies time after time.... but the knock on of thier bancrupsy rocked teh faith of the money markets in teh whole industry, left with its debts....
Curiousely in 1977, the Mighty Honda were on the brink of JUST such a 'collapse'... and it is similarly only by dint of serendipity that THEY are still here.....
The moment BSA-Triumph ceased producing motorcycles in volume; Honda became the worlds No1 Motorcycle manufacturer by both procuct numbers and $-Sales; but they were agressively attempting to break out of dependancy purely on motorcycles; following teh example of BSA, Norton Villiers, Moto-Guzzi and many other european motorcycle makers, they had diversified thier product range and were attempting to sell proprietry small plant engines and agricultural equipment; lawn-mowers, rotorvators; electrical generators... this boosted sales revinues, and allowed them to undertake the most economically dangerous move any motorcycle maker can.... try to build cars.
Many many early motorcycle makers tried diversifying into car production; AJS had a go, so did Humber. Most famouse name is probably Triumph; and its most famouse for failing, and ironic that in the early 1980's The British Leyland Group, then owning Triumph Cars ended up making the Honda Accord under licence as teh Triumph Acclaim! But I get ahead of myself.
Honda launched the CB750 in 1969; becouse they had reached the 'zenith' of industrial dominance for a motorcycle manufacturer, and they COULD. People said that they could NEVER make it and make money, but they did it to prove they COULD. So, the next goal was to prove they could build cars, and break all presedents NOT bancrupt themselves in the process.. and they launched the 'Civic' project, which launched them as a Multi-National Conglomerate, making a varied product line accross a number of markets....
But they OH SO Nearly DIDN'T.... and it was ANOTHER bit of serendipity that helped them... The 1971 Oil Crisis.....
In the USA, where cars for two decades had got ever bigger, and ever heavier and ever more 'thirsty' on 'cheap' 10cents a gallon 'gas'..... the oil crisis saw oil prices more than double, and Americas dependance on imported oil shook confidence in thier domestic motor-manufactueres as customers flocked to buy 'Cheap' Japanese Datsun or Toyota's that could do better than 30mpg!
And The Civic was teh RIGHT car at the RIGHT time.....
If it hadn't been; Honda could have gone bancrupt, just as BSA had only five years earlier......
And if THAT had happened?
You know we might not have ANY motorcycles any more! ____________________ My Webby'Tef's-tQ, loads of stuff about my bikes, my Land-Rovers, and the stuff I do with them!
Current Bikes:'Honda VF1000F' ;'CB750F2N' ;'CB125TD ( 6 3 of em!)'; 'Montesa Cota 248'. Learner FAQ's:= 'U want to Ride a Motorbike! Where Do U start?' |
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| Teflon-Mike |
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 Teflon-Mike tl;dr

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 Posted: 18:38 - 12 Jan 2012 Post subject: Re: Will Chinese Bikes ever be the new Jap Bikes? |
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| bLiXeY wrote: | People thought they were crap because they used mass production techniques (and how can anything mass produced be as good as something 'hand crafted' was probably the common line). It may be possible that Japanese mass production techniques (presumably developed during the war for ordnance) were indeed crap and caused component faults etc. Or it could have just been xenophobia as we'd recently been at war! |
Another bit of serendipity; a lot of the Japanese principles of 'Total Quality' were tought to them by British & American engineers, in series of lectures given by US 'Trade Deligations' over a period of about ten years, provided as part of the US 'post-war reconstruction' of Japan...
Many of them were accademics, and US and British manufactueres simply weren't listening to them at the time.
Yes, an awful lot of what they were suggesting was from 'lessons learned' during WWII and the 'best practice' learned by industry in the war against atrition!
Trouble was after the war, in the West, with factories left idle from making parts for planes or tanks, business wasn't responsive to 'new ideas'.. they already had production lines, they just needed products to make on them, and for nearly twenty years a very bouyant consumer market eager to buy anything they made!
The Japanese had almost nothing; they had never adopted the 'factory' model before WWII, they had evolved a kind of large scale 'cottage industry' with components manufactured by people in thier own back gardens, often whole villages making batches of a single component, batches being moved from yard to yard or village to village as they moved through the assembly process to finished product, often almost at the final 'point of use'; for example, the 'finished' bicycle or a sewing machine, would often be assembled in the shop that sold it from standard components.
Starting with almost nothing; the Japanese took this 'cottaging' model of manufacture, and ideas of 'total quality' as the basis of thier manufacturing 'model'.
Unlike Henry Ford who to excersise total control over the process insisted on making everything 'in house'; and utilised rigid production lines; the Japanese combined the cottaging system, utilising external sub-contractors extensively, and devolving 'control' of teh process to them through partnerships, and employing 'Total Quality' principles of designing for manufacture, and designing for quality in the process.
Breaking from the rigid production line system, and building upon the cottaging system, and working on large scale 'batch' production rather than rigid 'mass' production, proved, for 'complex' products to allow much more flexibility for product revision and change, that allowed them to completely change product designs quickly, cheaply and easily, rather than being constrained by tooling and factory layouts and investment to long term production with only minor revisions to the product.
The disadvantage they had was they had nothing to start from; that was also the advantage they had; they had a clean sheet of paper and were building from scratch, where in the US and Europe, we were working around what we already had.... ____________________ My Webby'Tef's-tQ, loads of stuff about my bikes, my Land-Rovers, and the stuff I do with them!
Current Bikes:'Honda VF1000F' ;'CB750F2N' ;'CB125TD ( 6 3 of em!)'; 'Montesa Cota 248'. Learner FAQ's:= 'U want to Ride a Motorbike! Where Do U start?' |
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 bLiXeY Scooby Slapper

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 Posted: 18:46 - 12 Jan 2012 Post subject: |
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Excellent potted history of post war automotive manufacture mike  |
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| Rogerborg |
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 Rogerborg nimbA

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 Posted: 19:51 - 12 Jan 2012 Post subject: |
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There's no inherent reason why China can't make decent bikes. Many of the components of your "Japanese" or "European" bike will be made in China anyway.
The YBR 125 is a Chinese bike in every way that matters. Perhaps their Japanese quality control overlords are stopping the bad ones getting out, but the good ones? They're made by Chinese people, from Chinese parts, in China.
However, there are some pretty fundamental differences between Chinese and Japanese industries.
Japan managed to transfer feudal loyalty into the industrial era. Their companies essentially offer a job for life. Since they (effectively) own their employees, they invest in them, in both training and brainwashing. Employees work themselves to death in order not to shame their company.
For example, I was hosted in Yokohama by a chap who did his normal working day, then stayed on until 3 or 4am (we could only get access to their testing hardware overnight) took us out for food, caught an hour or two's kip, then started over again, every day for 2 weeks, never a word of complaint, scrupulously polite the whole time. The kicker was that it was obvious after the first night that everything was fine and there was no need to keep going back, but it was simply unthinkable for either party to back down and skimp on doing the pre-agreed amount of work.
Chinese companies are trying to ape that, but the culture isn't an exact fit. They try and force employees to stay, locking them up at night and working them to death. It's not the same thing at all. There's no genuine loyalty from employees, they know they're just disposable commodities.
There's also the notion of honesty. I've seen the genuine dedication of relatively low level peons first hand, and some Japanese executives even to this day accept real responsibility for screwups. China, forget it, there's always another outfit opening down the road. Think 1980s London, it's just about Loadsamoney.
Volume. Japan makes millions of bikes. China makes hundreds of millions.
Japanese companies upsell. Start on a 125, graduate to a tourer or sportsbike or Harley clone. People in the same company are working on the budget bikes and the top of the range posermobiles. Some of the quality-through-necessity attitude is going to make its way around.
Chinese factories make almost entirely sub 150cc bikes and scooters, for a market of povs that can't (because of traffic laws) aspire to anything bigger. Heck, I've seen traffic cop variants of my little CM-125 clone.
So there's no existing culture of quality, and no particular need to produce it. Since the global market for big bikes is contracting, I wouldn't bet on them investing in them. In the domestic Chinese market, ecomental laws are likely to stifle the market for big bikes as fast as the demand for such luxury items - and the law changes to allow them to be ridden - grows.
So, China could produce great bikes cheaply, but I honestly don't think that they'll bother. There's no untapped market for them to sell into.
Don't get me wrong, there's such a huge manufacturing base there that some outfits will start exporting big bikes, but I doubt that they'll ever really commit to making them to Japanese standards of quality, although they'll certainly claim to be doing so.
I'd be delighted to be wrong, of course.  ____________________ Biking is 1/20th as dangerous as horse riding.
GONE: HN125-8, LF-250B, GPz 305, GPZ 500S, Burgman 400 // RIDING: F650GS (800 twin), Royal Enfield Bullet Electra 500 AVL, Ninja 250R because racebike |
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| Snodvan |
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 Posted: 20:32 - 12 Jan 2012 Post subject: |
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| colin1 wrote: | I think the future lies in collaborations between hi-tech new world countries and the cheap labour of low tech countries.
One example being triumph building it's bikes in thailand now, so you get british engineering but costs kept low by building somewhere cheap.
Tata of india have bought jaguar so they get access to top end engineering which they will filter down into their indian brands.
China will do something similar, They will buy an underperforming japanese brand, pump money into it, and syphon off the hi-tech engineering to make similar at home.
It will be a long time before china can produce an equivalent of an r6, but then triumph bided there time with retro models for quite a while before, they put their toe in the water with the tt600 and 675 to go up against the japanese.
So China can start with cheap bikes for low income countries and learners here, but slowly they will move into big bike commuters.
I reckon in ten years if you get a parallel twin 500 it would be silly not to get a chinese bike, and in 20 years, for a weekend toy, you will consider the chinese offerings as credible. |
+1 to this
A lot of my business has been with China, and I know what they can achieve. Sure they are wonderful at copying (including MY technologies!!! bugger 'em) but to say they are not innovative is wrong, wrong, wrong. I have seen many examples of local innovation/ development of an original idea WHEN they are given freedom to do so. THAT is often their problem. The heirachical structure that prevails in many (most?) of their manufacturing operations does not YET support the individuals showing their innovation / development skills - but it will because things are changing.
Snod ____________________ 04 (UK Reg) BMW F650cs, but really 02 first Reg in Holland |
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| Walloper |
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 Walloper Super Spammer

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 Posted: 20:40 - 12 Jan 2012 Post subject: |
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Chinese copy and paste everything.
They use cheap paper and wishy-washy inks.
I work in heavy industry where I see Chinese shit a lot as a daily occurrence. The can make a pump to pump for instance but when it fails it is almost impossible to get a repair kit. The industry standard pumps form Europe/America are well supported so can be repaired several times.
As said, The Chinese are NOT innovative.
Jap bikes kicked British bikes into touch because they put stuff on their bikes that British Bikers wanted.
Japanese were innovative where British bikes were resting on their Laurels oblivious/writing off the competition.
But never say never. It would only take some Chinese factory to hire a development team (Like Carl Foggarty ) and they would soon catch up. They are awash with money now so it's a matter of time. ____________________ W-ireless A-rtificial L-ifeform L-imited to O-bservation P-eacekeeping and E-fficient R-epair |
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 lilredmachine World Chat Champion

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| Babba |
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 Posted: 21:19 - 12 Jan 2012 Post subject: |
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China is currently experiencing its 'Industrial Revolution'. An event that many countries & cultures have already experienced & progressed from.
It's future is mapped out in the history of those that have gone before it, in China's case it may be ever so slightly differant because of its successfull, totalitarian government.
But eventually it will be the same, its the worlds largest population & one day soon that population will start to ask itself "why can't we enjoy the fuits of our labour".
Think Tiananmen Square but on a greater scale. The government will be overwhelmed by the sheer scale of numbers, the average bloke in the street outnumbers it by 1000-1.
I again predict that China will have a factory Moto GP team before the end on this decade, it will of course be producing the high capacity, performance motorcycles which participating in Moto GP is all about.
Selling high profit units to a leisure market.
Tis' written in the laws of commerce  |
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 lilredmachine World Chat Champion

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 lilredmachine World Chat Champion

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 Posted: 22:49 - 12 Jan 2012 Post subject: |
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They are that expensive because that is what people will pay for them.
Witness the R125 being one of the best selling bikes around despite costing nearly 4 and a half fucking grand for a tarted up commuter 125. It doesn't even have USD forks for christ sake. All it does is prove there are many, many idiot spotty yoofs with too much money around.
I totally agree with you that bikes in general are way too expensive, don't get me wrong. I however disagree with your statement that Hyosungs have fallen into any particular pricing trap along with the Jap makers. On average, their bikes are still a grand cheaper than the Jap alternatives, in most cases they are not a grand worse, either.
Stop moving the goalposts  ____________________ Bikes: too many, too much for one man to maintain anyway. |
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 pepperami Super Spammer

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 Posted: 23:08 - 12 Jan 2012 Post subject: |
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We have to agree to disagree about Hyosungs, yes they are cheaper than a similar Japanese machine.
However the big four have the networks (dealers & spares) to make buying one of thier machines a viable option.
I had a look at someones GTR 250 in the summer and a very nice bike it seemed to be.
If I was to get one and wanted to get spares, unless I use the net, the nearest dealer is over 50 miles away .
For me personally Hyosungs would need to be another£600/700 cheaper for me to consider them because of the inconveniance of thier dealer set-up.
As for a Chinese bike? firstly they need to produce a bike that I would want like a 250 twin or a 400 triple (no not one that`s trying to be a Harley).
They have almost no dealer back up so it would have to be REALLY cheap! ____________________ I am the sum total of my own existence, what went before makes me who I am now! |
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| Rogerborg |
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 Rogerborg nimbA

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 Posted: 01:23 - 13 Jan 2012 Post subject: |
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The GT250R has a v-twin making 28.5 bhp. It's a closer match to the new CBR250R at £3950. I'm pretty sure I know which one will end up costing you more when you come to sell it 2 or 3 years later.
| lilredmachine wrote: |
Suz Bandit 650 - £5,725 OTR
Hyo GT650 - £4,699 OTR
LulWut? |
Wrong comparison. Right now, today, you can walk into a Suzuki dealer and buy a half faired SV650 for £4454 with their cashback offer. Compare that against a naked GT650 or the GT650R for £5199. That's running until the end of April - I don't see Hyosung selling many - OK, any - GT650s until then.
And again, look at how much the Suzuki will be worth versus the Hyosung in 2 or 3 years.
New Hyosungs need to cost significantly less than Japanese branded bikes to make sense. I personally believe that a 2012 GT650R is likely to be as well made as an SV650S and quite possibly better than an ER6 but the used market doesn't believe it, and resale values are relatively poor. ____________________ Biking is 1/20th as dangerous as horse riding.
GONE: HN125-8, LF-250B, GPz 305, GPZ 500S, Burgman 400 // RIDING: F650GS (800 twin), Royal Enfield Bullet Electra 500 AVL, Ninja 250R because racebike |
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Old Thread Alert!
The last post was made 14 years, 62 days ago. Instead of replying here, would creating a new thread be more useful? |
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