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Will the clement weather push accident stats up or down?

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Pete.
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PostPosted: 21:40 - 30 Mar 2014    Post subject: Will the clement weather push accident stats up or down? Reply with quote

Was thinking about this the other day. The weather has been so warm that I've seen loads of extra bikes on my commute that I wouldn't expect to see until at least after Easter. I wonder if the extra bikes on the road so early will mean higher accident stats for this year, or will the weather being so warm, with better grip and visibility mean that they will be lower.

Aside from that - has anyone here brought their bike out of hibernation early this year? I ride my Bandit all year round, but for sure I wouldn't be out on my 'busa in March yet I've been out on it four Saturdays out of the last five.
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P.
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PostPosted: 21:45 - 30 Mar 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'll be honest, the good weather made me want to actually push a bike I'm not too familiar with... so I'm now on the cautious side as I know its gonna cause an accident sooner or later.

I'd say there will be a few more "sunday riders" exiting via the closest hedge when they venture out on a saturday instead.
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covent.gardens
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PostPosted: 21:49 - 30 Mar 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

Accidents will go up.

Saw two today... one at the Queensway underpass in Southend (life threatening)... the other just a slide on a roundabout near the A13.

More bikes on the road = More accidents.

When the weather is bad, the few bikes there are on the road are generally being sensible. Good weather = hoon weather = accidents.
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Pete.
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PostPosted: 21:52 - 30 Mar 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

MC wrote:
F**k knows, have better things to think about Laughing


When you're standing wearing ear plugs watching a machine for 6 hours you get time to think about all manner of things Smile
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 22:36 - 30 Mar 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

More "hibernation" bikers awakening, more accidents for them. The world's smallest violin player, just for you!

More bikes out there, more awareness and less chance of me getting SMIDSYd. Thumbs Up

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Teflon-Mike
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PostPosted: 06:19 - 31 Mar 2014    Post subject: Re: Will the clement weather push accident stats up or down? Reply with quote

Pete. wrote:
I wonder if the extra bikes on the road so early will mean higher accident stats for this year, or will the weather being so warm, with better grip and visibility mean that they will be lower.

From stat chops I have looked at, ISTR March Stats always tend to show a spike. The Mad-March-Hares, coming out of hybernation; out of practice, on bikes that haven't been ridden for months, more likely to have faults and more likely they'll be overlooked by riders full of over-enthusiasm at being back in the saddle.
Summer sees most accidents; mainly from greatest number of bikes on the road; Winter see's fewer from less bikes on the road; and the rate per mile remains pretty much the same throughout the year. Weather being such a small influence on actual risk; but peoples reactions to it perversely skewing the odds slightly the wrong way; Winter riders will tend to be a tad more aware and cautious of road conditions, summer riders more blase, over compensating to perceived risk. As well as winter bikers more likely to be riding for necessity, rather than pleasure, hence less likely to be thrill seekers taking unnecessary risks.
Not so sure its a particularly early 'spring' this year? End of march today? How long till Easter? Stats seem to climb through easter till May Bank, then plateau as summer settles; August Summer-Holidays sees the season starting to decline, but co-incides with start of accademic year, beginning of September, and yoofs getting bikes to get to and from college, propping them up for a month or so, into beginning of November, until weather stars to bite.
Seems pretty much the same every year, dont think this year is much different, though last three summers have been pretty dire, so may seem like we have better and earlier weather this spring; but I dont think it's unusually 'nice' unusually early this year.

Pete. wrote:
MC wrote:
F**k knows, have better things to think about Laughing


When you're standing wearing ear plugs watching a machine for 6 hours you get time to think about all manner of things Smile


It was better in the olden days when the Suds had solvents in them, and if you wanted a real hit, you went to the standards room to and cleaned the slip guages with MEK to check your tolerences!
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nerald
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PostPosted: 07:45 - 31 Mar 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

Up. Sadly 3 were killed yesterday in Cumbria alone.
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doggone
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PostPosted: 08:03 - 31 Mar 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

And one on the A170 Scarborough road, North Yorks - not a good start, all these seem to be older riders with bikes probably hardly been out since October.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 08:14 - 31 Mar 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sadder than dying at 90 after decades of dribbling from both ends?

Sadder than existing bereft of either risk or joy?

Keep calm and memepic on.

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wr6133
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PostPosted: 08:47 - 31 Mar 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

More bikes = more accidents that gets multiplied by the lack of ability of many of the sunny riders.

The amount of mid life crisis wankstains with litre bikes I saw on Saturday who clearly couldn't ride was shocking (when they wobble round corners at 20 and get overtaken on straights by a 2up, 250cc Chinese cruiser I define them as can't ride). I wonder how many make claims on their fully comp policies for chucking their shiny toys down the road. Also wonder how much that drives up premiums for all of us.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 08:56 - 31 Mar 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just make sure YOU are not a statistic! Course there will be more accidents with the huge extra numbers of bikes coming out of hibernation. Take it easy when you start your season, remember and practice those rusty skills before going nuts, make sure the bike is in good fettle, and accept that some people are better/faster riders than you are - let them be, doesn't mean it'll be any less enjoyable for you.

Sad to see the statistics rise each year, but there will always be some unfortunately Sad

On the upside, there were thousands of us out enjoying sunshine and dry roads on the weekend WITHOUT mishap Very Happy
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Rowey
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PostPosted: 09:00 - 31 Mar 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

Has anyone found car drivers getting bolder? I've ridden all winter and not had a single person try beating me off the lights or race me. Yet the weather perks up and Saturday I had and Audi and a big Merc try and race me, then Sunday another Audi.

The Merc was particularly worrying, It was a big CLS driven by a rather old, short, Indian chap who was wearing glasses. Someone I would think is well past their "I could drive in F1" days with reactions a quick as Bovril.
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doggone
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PostPosted: 09:08 - 31 Mar 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

That's the sunny weekend drivers, same problem of not realising gradually declining skills from lack of practice.
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Teflon-Mike
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PostPosted: 09:57 - 31 Mar 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:
Sad to see the statistics rise each year

Lies, Damn Lies and statistics!
Gov't figures, for what they are worth, actually show that road accident rates have been declining in the UK over the last couple of decades. M/C accidents are still disproportionate to the number of riders and the miles they travel; but are claimed to have reduced over the last three years, where car accidents have increased.
Dip is, like as not, due to the three crappy summers just past, keeping many fair-weather rider's indoors, and if the decline continues, will likely be due to them making it so fucking hard to get a licence, numbers don't increase much & biking dwindles even more as a % of road use; though no doubt they will claim that that shows the 'success' of new licencing regime!
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fozzym
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PostPosted: 11:18 - 31 Mar 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just a theory but if the season is extended due to better weather it may be that whilst the usual spike in accidents as people get going still happens. After that because folks will get more time on the bike hence more experience that overall the figures will be less or just similar to last year.

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Ribenapigeon
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PostPosted: 14:23 - 31 Mar 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rowey wrote:
.......reactions a quick as Bovril.


Hey! dont knock the Bovril, its the original X power Smile

I do think weather has an effect on peoples driving. if the suns out people are happier and more up for some spirited riding or driving. The guy in an old Astra trying to race me up the dual carriagway on sunday was a bit sad though.
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orangepeeleo
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PostPosted: 15:06 - 31 Mar 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was forced to follow about 6 very sensible chaps on cruisers at 40-50mph down country roads on Sunday, while in my car to visit the inlaws for mothers day. So apparently not in Northants lol think they were all going to the Harley shop in Uppingham.

Did like winding the windows down and listening to them though, bloody loud! Smile
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