'Twas but Project Fear, one week later

[cdlxxvi]

Of course it is too early for concrete data about investment, output, inflation, GDP and employment - for now we can only look at the markets.

Also, in the last week nothing happened but a giant opinion poll. Article 50 was not invoked, negotiations have not started, there is even no credible declaration what anyone wants to achieve in the end.


On with the show, then.


GBP/USD is 7.68% down to 1.33. We already start seeing it at the petrol pumps.

GBP/EUR is 6.86% down to 1.20. This should be noticed before making any "weak Europe will bow to our upper hand and give us a trade deal made of win and sweetness" noises.

FTSE 100 is 2.62% up to 6504. There was no bank run and a general crash of multinationals - after a brief panic everyone realised that indeed nothing happened this week. The worrying bit is banks taking a beating (RBS.L down 31.5%), as it may harm tax revenue.

FTSE 250 is down 6.13% to 16721. This is sad. Consider the example of DFS.L (down 29.18%) - the outlook is that making soft things for people of Britain to sit on will soon stop being profitable. Brexit doesn't change the nature of human bottoms, so this leaves us with a prediction that the soft things will not be affordable.


Considering again that this is a reaction to just an opinion poll, it doesn't look good.

[Minty]

On the other side, we have an increase of Brexit based threads.

I blame Gove.
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My fingers smell of your mum.

[Tracey Suntan-King]

I'm quite interested in your analysis of human bottoms. Tell me more....

Oh yes and Gove's mouth makes me think of a donkey's dilated bum hole everytime he opens it.

I think the bottom motif could define the whole referendum aftermath, talking out of/squeaky bum time etc.

Mind you, my theory has been weakened by the removal of two gigantic arseholes (Johnson & CMD) and a small annoying, low-hanging hemorrhoid (Corbyn).

Edited: atrocious, predictive spellmonging and abysmal proofreadership.
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Whether you think you can, or think you can't, you're probably right

[-]

[Rob Fzs]

Pound is stupidly high and needs to go lower, already seeing better returns on my exports now

???

Profit

????

more tax for the black hole.
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'00 Aprilia RS50 > '92 Honda CG > '99 Yamaha Fazer > '91 Yamaha RXS > '79 Suzuki X5 > 01' Honda Cg > 07' Honda Cg > 82' Kawasaki Z200 > suzuki gsxr 400 gk73a > honda vfr 400 NC30> Yamaha RD350 YPVS F2 > Kawasaki ZZR 600 D1 > Yamaha TZR 250 2MA >Suzuki TL1000R > Yamaha TDR250 > Honda 929 blade > Suzuki SV1000 > Honda H100
Mod 2 Passed 09/06/2011

[stinkwheel]

Oh noes.

Falling interest rates and increasing inflation. What a horrifying prospect for someone with a 20 year mortgage.

Carry on. At this rate they'll be paying me.
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“Rule one: Always stick around for one more drink. That's when things happen. That's when you find out everything you want to know.”
I did the 2010 Round Britain Rally on my 350 Bullet. 89 landmarks, 3 months, 9,500 miles.

[Rogerborg]

The Sterling correction is long overdue, and very welcome to anyone who cares about planting seeds for tomorrow rather than counting beans today.

[chris-red]

Whats one up from an Armchair expert? because that's what I am I reckon. I work in financial data and have an interest in it (I've read Michael Lewis books) I don't use this data to make money I normalize it for clients, I understand what most of it actually means and relates to

Anyway the point I'm getting at it 99% of people do not understand this data well enough to obtain anything useful from it. It can be interpreted so many different ways. I feel I'm in the know enough to know how little I know. Which is a better level of understanding than most.

You can argue it in many ways

FTSE 100 is up YAY everything is good

BUT the pound is down, just because the pound is down doesn't necessarily mean the companies that make up the index are worth less in the global market. Therefore the share price rises.

The Pound is down it's the end of the world.

BUT the pound was artificially high on the expectation that we would remain and the dollar is doing really well at the moment. That combined with the volatility immediately after the referendum could mean this is a blip that will right itself.

I don't think you can trust anything in the markets to give you an accurate portrail of what is/will happen(ing) for a week or 2 yet. I'm slightly concerned as I was certain the pound would return to not far of what it was in the weeks before the referendum by next week. Now I'm not so sure.


Imagine the wet Assen GP race was the first race of the season, it's like using that to work out who will win the championship.

Even 'Proper' economists rarely agree/get it right.

There is a bit in The West Wing I think articulates it well.

[Rob Fzs]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BX3tr8uGYuI

Remainers in one video
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'00 Aprilia RS50 > '92 Honda CG > '99 Yamaha Fazer > '91 Yamaha RXS > '79 Suzuki X5 > 01' Honda Cg > 07' Honda Cg > 82' Kawasaki Z200 > suzuki gsxr 400 gk73a > honda vfr 400 NC30> Yamaha RD350 YPVS F2 > Kawasaki ZZR 600 D1 > Yamaha TZR 250 2MA >Suzuki TL1000R > Yamaha TDR250 > Honda 929 blade > Suzuki SV1000 > Honda H100
Mod 2 Passed 09/06/2011

[cdlxxvi]

[chris-red]

[Suntan Sid]

[JonB]

[Rogerborg]

[Rob Fzs]

[kawakid]

Tbh, We are all just a load of cxnts.

I voted out, as did most of my associates, but we never thought it would happen. It was a protest vote.

It didn't look good when Putin/Trump et al were signing our praises.

What's more ridiculousis I work for a German company and I do (did), have to visit.

FFS I was planning on buying my Euros at 1.45 last Friday . Now they're 1.19


Ultimately there was no plan for if and when they won. They never expected to.

Tbh, Cameron's a toff and a bit of a knob, but Gove is an absolute twxt.

I liked Borris.


As for Farage, turning up to say feck off. What a tool.

We've fecked this up big style.

Half my family is Irish in the farming industry and they aren't happy either. (Might not have helped, when I sent all the whatsapp messages saying Yipee we're going to be independent. Whereas they're thinking shxt what's going to happen to us).

I'm probably just panicking.
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I've a twin and a 4.

[Rob Fzs]

[lihp]

Finally, a brexit plan.

https://thebrexitplan.com/
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covent.gardens: lihp is my most favourite member ever

[Rob Fzs]

Flexit is best plan
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'00 Aprilia RS50 > '92 Honda CG > '99 Yamaha Fazer > '91 Yamaha RXS > '79 Suzuki X5 > 01' Honda Cg > 07' Honda Cg > 82' Kawasaki Z200 > suzuki gsxr 400 gk73a > honda vfr 400 NC30> Yamaha RD350 YPVS F2 > Kawasaki ZZR 600 D1 > Yamaha TZR 250 2MA >Suzuki TL1000R > Yamaha TDR250 > Honda 929 blade > Suzuki SV1000 > Honda H100
Mod 2 Passed 09/06/2011

[Rogerborg]

[stinkwheel]

[Rogerborg]

The law is not of their side if they do bite their thumbs at him, sir.
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Biking is 1/20th as dangerous as horse riding.
GONE: HN125-8, LF-250B, GPz 305, GPZ 500S, Burgman 400 // RIDING: F650GS (800 twin), Royal Enfield Bullet Electra 500 AVL, Ninja 250R because racebike

[Val]

[cdlxxvi]

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